When Kentucky was announced as a 7-seed, everyone knew the risks that came along with it. Soon after, it was revealed that Iowa State was the 2-seed in the Midwest region, where Kentucky would be playing. Everyone circled Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic as key players to watch. One of them is unlikely to play with Joshua Jefferson, admitting it was 'unlikely' for him to be back in time for tomorrow's game after rolling his ankle against Tennessee State in the opening round.
Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson was helped off the floor after an apparent ankle injury pic.twitter.com/R4xaFzgsJU
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 20, 2026
What does Joshua Jefferson's absence mean for Iowa State
For Iowa State, this news puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the team. Jefferson was a star that did a little bit of everything all season long. He averages 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and steps outside to shoot it at 34%. The 6'9 senior is, in short, a matchup nightmare.
If Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson can’t go… this changes everything.
— Peter Newmann (@petenewmann) March 20, 2026
With him on the court, Iowa State plays like the best team in the country.
Without him? They drop to 101st.
That’s the 3rd-biggest net rating swing in the Big 12.
And he just left with an ankle injury. 😳 pic.twitter.com/7oecClbhLc
As you can see from the graphic, Iowa State's net ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency drops over 100 points. While they won't be full strength, don't believe for a second this makes them a bad team.
Milan Momcilovic is still a problem. He is averaging 17.1 and shoots it at 49% from deep. Yesterday, without Jefferson, Milan hit his average with 17 points on three 3-point makes. But it was Killyan
Toure and Nate Heise, who stepped up in a big way.
After averaging only 8 points a game all year, Toure had 25 points and 11 rebounds. That was a season high in both categories. But Heise's rise was even more substantial.
The 6'5 senior went from averaging 5 points a game to 22 hitting 4-5 from deep.
In short this is a dangerous team that has plenty of weapons to hurt you in a lot of ways.
What Joshua Jefferson's injury means for Kentucky basketball
For Kentucky, it means the defense can be adjusted a little. Not having a 6'9 do-it-all player on the court for nearly the whole game means the Cats don't have to worry as much about Mo Dioubate becoming a problem offensively. If Jefferson were going to play, Mo would be getting a ton of minutes.
Defensively, that is great; he can stay in front of guys and rebound the ball above his size. But offensively, he shrinks the floor and makes it harder to get open looks. To his credit, he really found a way to burrow inside for 17 points. But that was against Santa Clara, who were not as physical as Iowa State will be.
It also means that the Cats will need to lock it up defensively. This is a team that shot 54% from the floor, 46% from 3, 78% from the line, and forced 16 turnovers with 13 fast break points.
Kentucky excels in transition, but it can get too relaxed guarding the 3-point line, as seen yesterday against Santa Clara. The Broncos repeatedly burned the Cats from behind the arc, and Kentucky can not let Iowa State get comfortable.
Not having to worry about the Jefferson matchup should make that a lot easier.
Don't expect this to be an easy game
If you thought just because Jefferson went down, this would be a Kentucky win easily, then I have some bad news for you. This is still an elite Iowa State team that plays hard, fast, and physical. They will be ready, and Kentucky better be as well.
If anything, this injury news should make Kentucky play harder, because it will definitely make Iowa State do the same.