Tonight at 7 PM on ESPN, Kentucky football (2-3) welcomes the No. 21 Texas Longhorns (4-2) to Kroger Field, a matchup that looks daunting for all the wrong reasons as the Wildcats desperately seek their first SEC win.
Texas rolling, Kentucky reeling
The Longhorns are aiming to get back into the national championship conversation after two early losses. They found serious momentum last week, turning a 6-3 halftime deficit against Oklahoma into a dominant 23-6 victory. Quarterback Arch Manning was surgical (21-of-27, 166 yards, 1 TD, plus 34 rushing yards), and the Texas defense pitched a second-half shutout.
Kentucky, meanwhile, faces the challenge of containing Texas's balanced attack with a defense prone to giving up chunk plays. The Wildcats’ soft zone coverage often yields easy underneath completions, a weakness Manning excels at exploiting. UK has allowed over 270 passing yards per game at home this season.
The odds feel low
Over at FanDuel, the final odds list Texas as a 12.5-point favorite, with the Over/Under at 44.5. Honestly, that spread feels generous to Kentucky. The Wildcats have scored just 13 and 14 points in their last two SEC games, both blowout losses by over 20 points. Texas's defense allows only 11 points per game on average.
Furthermore, Texas has every incentive to put up big numbers to impress the College Football Playoff committee. That doesn’t bode well for a Kentucky defense that, even with DJ Waller Jr. returning, faces a significant talent mismatch.
Prediction: Texas cruises
Overall, Texas is the better football team at nearly every position. Expect the Longhorns to control the game and pull away for a comfortable victory.
Our final prediction: Texas 31, Kentucky 10.
This game could have been much worse, but expect Steve Sarkisian, much like Kirby Smart last week, to potentially ease off the gas in the fourth quarter and run the clock. Still, another loss looms for Mark Stoops. With Tennessee coming to town next, Kroger Field might see more visiting orange than home blue as fan apathy deepens. Things could get ugly in Lexington if this game isn't competitive, and there's little indication it will be.
Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time he enjoys downtime with his family and Premier League soccer. You can find him on X here. Micah 7:7. #UptheAlbion