Predicting where Kentucky basketball will rank in the AP poll

Kentucky with another see-saw week with a midweek win and a weekend loss. How far will the Cats fall?
Feb 15, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Tre Johnson (20) shoots over Kentucky Wildcats forward Ansley Almonor (15) during the first half at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
Feb 15, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Tre Johnson (20) shoots over Kentucky Wildcats forward Ansley Almonor (15) during the first half at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

In the wake of Kentucky's recent 82-78 loss to Texas, the Wildcats' standing in the AP Top 25 is under scrutiny. Despite the setback, a significant drop in rankings is unlikely. Kentucky currently resides at No. 15, The midweek win over a top 5 Tennessee is enough to avoid the big drop, but it is showcasing their ability to compete against top-tier teams and flop against non-ranked teams. Additionally, the team's recent challenges, including the absence of their top three point guards due to injuries, provide context that voters are likely to consider, even though Kentucky has lost 5 of their last 8.

Looking beyond the Wilcats for a moment, Auburn maintains its stronghold at No. 1 for sure, followed closely by Alabama who they defeated. Florida breaks the tie with Duke who falls to number 4 with Tennessee dropping to number 7. Given all that, it's projected that Kentucky will experience a modest decline, potentially settling in at No. 17 in the upcoming poll tomorrow. This projection accounts for their recent loss while acknowledging their resilience amid roster challenges, and big time wins.

Texas probably does garner some votes after knocking off the Cats to stop their losing streak, but I do not think they will have enough to get into the top 25. Along with the AP poll the coaches poll also will be coming out, and the Cats will sit in that 18-20 range there as well.

As the season winds down with only 6 games to go, Kentucky's ability to navigate adversity and capitalize on upcoming matchups will be crucial in determining their trajectory within the rankings. A poor finish to the season will see them drop out of the top 25, while a good one sees them climb into the top 10. Maintaining consistency and securing key victories will be essential for the Wildcats to reaffirm their status among the nation's elite before March Madness.