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Latest projections continue to cast serious doubt on Kentucky's bowl game outlook

In the face of optimism around Will Stein, Kentucky is still being doubted to make a bowl this season.
Sep 6, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Jaden Smith (24) reacts after a punt during the third quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Sep 6, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Jaden Smith (24) reacts after a punt during the third quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The hype that has built up around Will Stein in Lexington over the past few months has been overwhelming enough to make much of the Big Blue Nation forget where people outside of the Bluegrass stand on their football team. Another round of season projections, this time to do with bowl games, has once again left Kentucky on the outside looking in.

Athlon dropped a set of way-too-early predictions as to which college football teams will make bowls this season, who they'll play in them, and where exactly they'll play. Unsurprisingly, the Wildcats were spurned from the list. A closer look at Athlon's outlook reveals Stein's squad at the bottom of the SEC.

According to Steve Lasson, the Cats slot in at an uncomfortable No. 15 in the conference this coming season; not only will Kentucky miss a bowl on this view, but they'll be feeding on the absolute bottom of the league alongside the Arkansas Razorbacks.

That's literally keeping company with swine - not a favorable outlook, to say the least.

Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Dec 3, 2025; Lexington, KY, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head football coach Will Stein speaks during his introductory press conference at Nutter Field House. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"Although Stein faces a learning curve as a first-time head coach in the rugged SEC, he’s one of the top rising stars after coordinating some of the nation’s top offenses at Oregon," granted Lasson, before ultimately crushing BBN's hopes of an immediate, year-one revival.

Crushing BBN's Hopes of a Year-One Revival

"Although the new pieces on offense are generating the bulk of the offseason attention, Kentucky has to improve its defense (28.4 points allowed in SEC play) to contend for a bowl."

While the Wildcats' roster certainly has turned over to a noticeable extent, it's still odd to note that a chunk of the guys from Mark Stoops' final year stuck around. The bones of this program have been completely swapped out, but some of the tissue in-between remains the same.

Still, I find it hard to imagine a Will Stein-led team isn't at least higher than that No. 15 spot. I'm not going to guarantee a bowl berth or anything, but I don't believe I'm alone in being a little thrown off by Kentucky's expectation being this battered across the board.

Stein's Potential to Surprise

Given the nature of any and every SEC schedule, Kentucky would certainly have to play above the bar and secure a few technical upsets to clear their widely perceived low-win line.

Yet, that isn't at all uncommon at Kroger Field. Even at Coach Stoops' worst - last year, for example - the Cats were contending with Ole Miss and Texas in tight-knit losses that could've entirely changed their season.

With an expectedly improved staff and roster both, Kentucky should be punching up a little this season. And if five wins last year was the floor, one more gets you into a bowl. Is it simple math, BBN, or am I going insane?

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