When the opening betting line was announced at -4.5 in favor of Iowa State, many fans wondered if the spread would shift following the news of Joshua Jefferson's ankle injury. As of this writing, it has not moved an inch. The line at FanDuel remains exactly where it started on Friday night.
With the Cyclones' star forward highly unlikely to play, the Wildcats will look to take advantage of the missing frontcourt presence and punch an improbable ticket to the Sweet 16. But to pull off the upset, Kentucky has to fix the most glaring offensive flaw that has been plaguing it all season: shooting.
Who will take Joshua Jefferson's minutes?
Nate Heise is the most likely candidate to absorb the majority of Jefferson's workload, just as he did on Friday. Heise is a highly physical, 6-foot-5 defender who can comfortably guard positions one through four, which makes him a great plug-and-play option.
However, his lack of elite interior size makes that matchup incredibly enticing for Kentucky offensively. Mark Pope has to use Andrija Jelavic and Mo Dioubate to exploit that height discrepancy and bully their way to easy baskets down low, especially if Heise has the kind of game he did against Tennessee State.
The Wildcats must be completely locked in defensively. Heise exploded for 25 points in Iowa State's first-round win, making 4-of-5 from deep. Kentucky simply cannot afford to let the Cyclones get hot from beyond the arc, mostly because the Cats have had an absolutely terrible time shooting the ball in March.
Kentucky's 3-point shooting has dried up at the worst time
The Wildcats have been ice-cold from downtown since hitting 11-of-22 in their upset win over Vanderbilt in Lexington back on February 28. The month of March has been unkind to Kentucky's shooting.
Take a look at the brutal shooting splits since the calendar turned to March:
- Texas A&M (Loss): 8-of-26
- Florida (Loss): 8-of-23
- LSU (Win): 6-of-22
- Missouri (Win): 6-of-21
- Florida - SEC Tournament (Loss): 5-of-23
Over those five critical matchups, Kentucky is shooting a combined 33-of-115 (28.7%) from three-point range. You cannot survive the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament shooting under 30% from deep.
Things looked a little better on Friday night against Santa Clara. The Cats shot 10-of-28 from deep, which isn't great, but it is better than the last 2 games.
The Cats are desperately due for a hot game from beyond the arc, and today would be the perfect time for the law of averages to finally swing back in their favor.
Official Prediction
I actually think Kentucky does get hot from downtown today. I think they will play with a renewed, desperate energy that we haven't seen since that Vanderbilt victory.
But the harsh reality is that Iowa State is simply one of the best, most cohesive teams in the entire country. Even without Jefferson, the Cyclones' elite defensive pressure will eventually take its toll on the Cats, who only have Denzel Aberdeen as a ball handler.
I do think it will be a thrilling, back-and-forth battle, but the Cats will come up just short in the end.