Kentucky basketball got an absolutely brutal draw in the NCAA Tournament after falling to Florida for the third time this season. The Cats are officially going dancing as a 7-seed in the Midwest Region, but the path through St. Louis is a nightmare of "bad matchups."
They drew 10-seed Santa Clara in the opening round, a team that excels in the one area Kentucky has failed all year: physical, high-volume rebounding. And Vegas is taking notice with a tight line under 4 points.
The 'Vegas' disrespect
The Cats are a 7-seed, but the oddsmakers aren't treating them like a favorite. FanDuel has the Cats as a -3.5 favorite, while other sites opened with Kentucky -2.5. This is the lowest seed Kentucky has received in over a decade, and the narrow spread suggests that the "experts" see an upset brewing.
To find a silver lining, BBN can look back to 2014 when an 8-seed Cats team went all the way to the title game. But that team eventually figured out how to win the battle in the paint, something this current squad is still searching for.
The Santa Clara 'pothole'
The Broncos are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, hauling in 11 offensive boards per game. Contrast that with Kentucky’s performance against Florida, where they were out-rebounded 50-29 and surrendered 18 offensive rebounds.
If Malachi Moreno, Brandon Garrison, and Andrija Jelavic don't play with a level of physicality we haven't seen consistently, and definitely not against the Gators, Santa Clara will simply out-possess the Cats into an early exit.
Waiting in the Wings: The Iowa State buzzsaw
If Kentucky manages to sneak by the Broncos, a potential date with 2-seed Iowa State awaits. The Cyclones are a juggernaut that Jay Bilas said was the best team in the region despite being the 2-seed.
The 1-2 punch of Milan Momcilovic (a near 50% shooter from deep) and Joshua Jefferson represents a matchup nightmare. Iowa State plays a "smothering" style that thrives on the exact kind of hero ball and lack of focus that have resulted in the Cats getting run out of the gym.
Talent isn't the question, focus is
The Cats have all the talent in the world, but they currently have none of the focus. Mark Pope’s squad has been warned: the Midwest Region is a pothole-filled bracket waiting to pop Kentucky’s tire.
They have five days to find their heart or their ride in March will be over before it started.