The Cats were cruising in their SEC home opener. Otega Oweh had just banged in a triple, Kentucky was up by eight with 4:37 to go, and the win-probability calculator sat at a comfortable 91.3%. And then, the wheels fell off.
The final four minutes in Lexington were a masterclass in what happens when poise vanishes. Between Malachi Moreno’s 2 turnovers and a final-minute Brandon Garrison giveaway, Kentucky handed Missouri a game it had no business winning. To avoid the same fate today in Nashville, Mark Pope’s squad has to manage fatigue, hit the glass, and make the extra pass.
Sounds easy, but does this team make anything easy? See yesterday's 87-82 win over LSU.
The Croatian factor and rotation shifts
In that first meeting, Collin Chandler was a non-factor with only five minutes of floor time, and Andrija Jelavic was buried on the bench during a strange two-week stint of DNPs.
Fast forward to Nashville yesterday, and Jelavic was a perfect 3-for-3 to start yesterday’s win in the SEC Tournament, and his ability to space the floor and rebound will be the "X-factor" today. If Kentucky is going to manage the fatigue from yesterday’s dogfight, Jelavic and Chandler must provide the productive minutes they didn't provide in January.
It should easier than it was back then, too.
Exploiting the Tiger defense
Like LSU yesterday, Missouri is not a defensive juggernaut. They rank 198th nationally, giving up nearly 76 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot a staggering 51.4 effective field percentage from the floor.
The Tigers' biggest weakness? The glass. They allow nearly a team to get nearly 30% of their misses a night (29%), ranking them near the bottom of the country (#213). If Kentucky hits the glass hard, especially with a rejuvenated Brandon Garrison, they won't just get good shots; they’ll get second and third chances.
To win, Kentucky needs to show poise down the stretch and manage the heavy legs from the LSU win. If they hit the glass and protect the rock in the final four minutes, they’ll set up a massive showdown with Florida. If not, Missouri walks away with the season sweep.
I feel more confident in today's game than yesterday's, but again this team is so up-and-down. I still think they get the win.
Prediction: Kentucky 77, Missouri 70
How to Watch: Kentucky vs. Missouri
Tip: 12:30 PM ET (Thursday, March 12th)
Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, Alyssa Lang
FanDuel odds: Kentucky -3.5 | Over/Under: 149.5
Streaming: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FuboTV, Sling TV (Blue & Orange Plan)
Radio options: Online: Stream live at UKAthletics.com or on iHeartRadio via WLAP 630.
Local FM/AM Stations:
Lexington: 98.1 FM / 630 WLAP
Louisville: 840 AM WHAS
London: 103.9 FM WWEL
Hazard/Pikeville: 101.1 WSGS
Madisonville: 93.9 FM WKTG