Kentucky Wildcat Football Recruiting: How do the rankings translate? Part I
By Kyle
Kentucky had two players invited to the NFL draft combine this year, and neither was very highly rated. Derrick Locke came to UK out of Hugo, Oklahoma and was so lightly recruited that he actually enrolled at Kentucky on a track scholarship. Randall Cobb was overlooked by many schools and outside of a late offer from Tennessee, Kentucky was the only BCS school willing to take a chance on him. Cobb was considered a two-star player until the last ranking update came out, when he was bumped to a three-star prospect. As of this morning, ESPN’s Scouts Inc has Cobb as the 29th best player available in the 2011 draft. Locke wasn’t even rated at all, and didn’t garner even a single star next to his name during the recruiting process. As of today, Locke is almost universally considered one of the top ten running backs in the class and his stock is currently rising.
So how closely does a players rating as a high school senior correlate to their likelihood of being drafted into the NFL? Obviously Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke prove that the scouting services don’t always get it right, but with Kentucky fans moaning about the four-star and five-star players Kentucky doesn’t get, I thought I’d look into it a little more.
Using the rivals.com database (which seems to be the most widely used and accurate rating website), I’ve taken all the players that were drafted in the first three rounds of the last three drafts and separated them out by position. For today’s post, I’m breaking down the offensive players, where they were drafted, and where they were rated by rivals as seniors in high school.
(Hint: Click the graphs to enlarge)
The Receivers
The Tight ends
The Offensive line
So what does this all mean?
Quarterback seems to be one of the most accurate positions by ratings. There were fewer signal-callers taken in the first three rounds than any other offensive position, but 42% of the guys drafted were rated as five-star players during their recruitment. While you can certainly find a diamond in the rough, most of the quarterbacks that perform well were expected to do so.
The running back position seems to be a little cloudier. One third of the players drafted over the sampling were considered four-star players as preps, but nearly that many were also considered three-star guys too. In fact, there were actually more two-star players drafted in the first three rounds than five star players. It appears that running back is a harder position to scout for in regards to prep players. I would venture to say that the sheer number of running backs and teams that feature them in high school make it tougher to separate the really good ones out. Based on these results, the gap between a 2-star and a five-star guy just isn’t as great at this position as it is at others.
At wide receiver, things become a little bit easier to analyze. Of the 42 players drafted in the first three rounds, over half where four or five-star prospects. In pro-style offenses, receivers need to have a combination of size and speed and most of the guys on this list were big and fast in high school as well. Elite receivers are just easier to spot than a lot of other positions and the 2011 draft will probably see the top two receivers in the 2008 recruiting class drafted in the first round when Julio Jones (Alabama/ 5-star/ #1 WR overall) and A.J. Green (Georgia/ 5-star/ #2 WR overall) come off the board in April. I do find it interesting that Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) and Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) are easily two of the best guys on this list, and both were two-star recruits.
The tight ends are a little deceiving. There have only been five players total to earn a five-star rating as a tight end since 2002, so rivals doesn’t pass out the honor to the position often. Bennett was considered a wide receiver as a prep player, but all five will be on NFL rosters by April when Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame) is drafted. I’ll give Jimmy Graham a pass too, because he was a four-star basketball prospect that surprised a lot of people by deciding to give football a try once he was already at Miami. Because of the nature of the tight end position, it’s tough to say that ‘Rivals’ hasn’t done a nice job in scouting the position. With so many guys converting from high school linebackers, wide receivers, running backs, defensive linemen, and even quarterbacks, converting to tight ends in college, it’s almost impossible to really judge the conversion from prep to pro here. Add the number of tight ends that switch to linebacker, or offensive/ defensive line and you’re completely lost.
The offensive line is where things get REALLY interesting. A ridiculous 77% of the offensive linemen drafted in the first three rounds of the last three drafts were rated as a three-star player or lower, and three weren’t even in “Rivals’ database at all! The website only considered ten of the forty three players drafted over that span as four or five-star players. Part of this can be attributed to some of these guys being projected along the defensive line or at tight end as prep players, but it is surprising that so many of the players drafted were rated so low at any rate.
So there you have the complete breakdown of offensive players. While some of the guys were “no-brainers” that were almost assured of stardom, there were way more guys that surpassed the expectations put in place for them and really blossomed in college. I’ll do a breakdown of the defensive guys on Thursday, and then take a look at the process as a whole on Sunday.
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