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Grading Kentucky QB Zach Calzada's debut: A statistical disaster

A closer look at the numbers behind Zach Calzada's dreadful first start for Kentucky, culminating in a final grade for his performance.
ByDrew Holbrook|
Aug 30, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Zach Calzada (5) talks with offensive lineman Alex Wollschlaeger (50) during the first quarter against the Toledo Rockets at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Aug 30, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Zach Calzada (5) talks with offensive lineman Alex Wollschlaeger (50) during the first quarter against the Toledo Rockets at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Folks, there is no way to sugarcoat it: the offensive display against Toledo was not pretty. At the center of it all was quarterback Zach Calzada, who was brought in through the transfer portal to stabilize the position but instead looked indecisive and inaccurate. His final stat line tells part of the story: 10 of 23 for 85 yards and a touchdown, with 14 rush yards and a QB sneak for a score.

After the game, Calzada said, “It felt good... There were some ups and downs, but I feel good about these guys and we’re gonna get better.” One has to wonder what "ups" he was referring to. The impact of his struggles was felt across the offense. With no threat of a passing game, Toledo was able to stack the box, making running lanes harder to find for running backs. Dante Dowdell did break one, but other than that Kentucky averaged just 3.36 yards per carry on 41 attempts. Promising drives repeatedly stalled due to errant throws, killing any momentum the team tried to build.

Advanced stats tell an even worse story

Let's look beyond the basic stats at the deeper analytics of his performance via SECstatcat:

  • 30.4% Uncatchable Pass Rate: Nearly one-third of his passes were deemed completely uncatchable.
  • 19.9% Depth Adjusted Accuracy: Even when accounting for the difficulty of his throws, his accuracy was abysmal.
  • 17.4% Success Rate: This means only 17.4% of his plays kept the offense "on schedule" to gain a new set of downs.
  • 13.0% Interceptable Pass Rate: He was lucky to escape with only one interception; nearly 1 in 7 of his passes could have been picked off.

This performance immediately raises questions about the QB depth chart. While Calzada was named the starter, this kind of showing opens the door for BBN to scream even louder for home town kid Cutter Boley.

Final Grade: F

Overall, Calzada looked exactly like Brock Vandagriff did last year, which suggests the problem may run deeper than just the quarterback. But a performance must be graded on its own merits, and this was a failing one.

Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time, he spends time with his family, and watching Premier League soccer. Ephesians 3:20. #UpTheAlbion

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