Mark Pope has some work to do if the latest bracketologists are correct.
Kentucky is currently 12-6 and ranked No. 28 in the NCAA NET rankings, which the committee uses for its rankings. If you looked at that number in a vacuum, Kentucky would be safely in the field as a 7 seed.
But the Selection Committee doesn't look at the NET only, and right now, Kentucky doesn't have a lot of believers in the bracket projection business.
Bracketologists have Kentucky in a precarious spot
The consensus among the experts is pretty clearly a bad sign for the Cats. They all believe Kentucky is dangerously close to the cut line.
Over at ESPN, Joe Lunardi has Kentucky as a 10 seed and listed as one of the "Last 4 Byes" in the tournament. That is a terrifying designation for fans. Essentially, the Wildcats are just a couple of bad losses away from falling into the "First Four" play-in games or missing the tournament entirely. Lunardi currently has them squarely on the bubble in the East Region, going up against the 7 seed SMU.
He isn't alone in that assessment.
- Chris Dobbertean over at Blogging the Bracket sees the exact same scenario, placing Kentucky as a 10 seed, but this time in the South.
- HoopsHQ also views Kentucky as a 10 seed in the West, agreeing with Lunardi that they are one of the "Last 4 Byes."
The only slightly more optimistic projection comes from The Field of 68, which just released its first bracket of the season. They have Kentucky as a 9 seed, which is currently the ceiling among the major prognosticators.
Where is KENTUCKY in our first bracket??? https://t.co/nvtZPS2CBr
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) January 19, 2026
Why, though, would Kentucky be so low? That is a question that only they can answer, but we can look at the overall resume. Kentucky is now 3-5 in quad 1 games, the same record as Louisville, who are firmly in the tournament. So, it really comes down to the perception of the Cats. The blowouts have been the biggest factor; had those been close losses, it is possible Kentucky would be much further up the board right now.
A crucial week ahead
The margin for error has evaporated. With two home games this week, the Cats have a massive chance, and arguably a necessity, to solidify their standing in the bracket. Taking care of business at Rupp Arena is mandatory the rest of the way. But these two games are even more important before heading back out on the road for tough tests against ranked Vanderbilt and a ranked John Calipari-led Arkansas.
If Mark Pope wants to avoid a sweat filled Selection Sunday, the wins need to start stacking up now.