As we start into the conference portion of the 2024 college basketball season, the Week 6 AP poll is is a great indicator of who can cut down the nets come March. All of the last 20 national champions and 34 of the past 35, were each ranked in the top 12 in their respective season's Week 6 AP poll. Since 2003-04, 4.8 is the average week 6 ranking of the eventual champs.
Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, and Duke are the top four, with Tennessee holding the No. 1 spot. Tennessee boasts 11-0 record, averaging 81 points per game, and giving up only 56, 2nd in the country. The Vols are a powerhouse this year. Auburn, at No. 2, has a 10-1 record with notable wins against Houston and Iowa State, averaging around 88 points per game and giving up 65. Iowa State, with a 9-1 record, is holding opponents to just over 65 points per game and scoring 87. Duke, at No. 4, has a 9-2 record, with freshman Cooper Flagg making significant impacts, averaging 78 points per game while giving up just 58.
Kentucky, Marquette, Alabama, and Gonzaga follow closely. Kentucky, with an 10-1 record, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their high-scoring games averaging 91 points. Marquette, at 10-2, has been consistent, with a balanced scoring attack averaging 81 points per game. Alabama, despite their 9-2 record, has been a scoring machine, averaging close to 90 points per game, but gives up 79 points. Gonzaga, with an 8-3 record, continues to be a force, especially in the paint, though their defense has been a point of concern, allowing 69 points per game.
Florida, Kansas, Purdue, and Oregon round out the top 12. Florida has a 11-0 record, showing resilience with an average of 86 points per game. Kansas holds a 8-2 record, with a balanced team effort scoring just 78 a game. Purdue, with an 8-3 record, has been dealing with adjustments after the loss of Zach Edey but still manages a solid 77 points per game. Oregon, at 10-1, rounds out the group averaging 79 points a game. So where do they stand when comparing them to each other?
1. Auburn- An amazing start by Bruce Pearl's Tigers have them poised to be the best team in the nation come March.
2. Kentucky- They do a little of everything well, including rebounding. If their shooting gets back to normal, they will be the best team playing. Does not always mean you win though.
3. Florida- Florida is a team that can score with anyone, their defense can get lost.
4. Tennessee- Rick Barnes never does well in March and seems to find a way to underacheive. This team is better offensively but still can go cold for stretches.
5. Kansas- Bill Self is one of those coaches that always seems to find themselves around title conversation every year, this year is no different.
6. Iowa St- The Hawkeyes 23 point differential showcases a team that can really clamp down while scoring.
7. Duke- Young teams sometimes struggle, but Duke has a nice mix of vets that will help them come March.
8. Purdue- A defensive team that doesn't play great defenses at time, could hurt them on a cold shooting night.
9. Marquette- Not as dominant as other teams here, but just as good. Could find themselves deep in the tournament with the right matchup.
10. Oregon- Dana Altman is an underrated genius at the game of basketball. I would not want to play this team come March.
11. Alabama- A team that has to outscore you to win, because the defense is just bad. That will hurt them come March.
12. Gonzaga- A bad 3 point shooting team can get upset by a hot team. Still a dangerous team with a good chance to be there at the end.
These teams not only have the talent but historical precedent on their side. The SEC's strong showing with five teams in the top 12 could foreshadow a dominant run in the NCAA tournament for what is shaping up to be the best conference ever.