Was the Duke win as big as it felt? A dive into Kentucky basketball's recent big games against the top 25

Kentucky basketball fans know the thrill and heartbreak that comes with big games. Since 2020, John Calipari’s Wildcats have had a rocky track record against AP Top 25 teams, with flashes of brilliance punctuated by a string of losses.

Despite high points like the big win at Kansas in 2022 and several victories over ranked Tennessee teams, deflating losses to unranked teams, i.e., the 2021 stumble against Richmond and the unforgettable St. Peter’s and Oakland upsets in the NCAA Tournament, left fans feeling Kentucky was chasing rather than leading in any game they played. It was almost a feeling of surprise when we won a big game up until last year. Kentucky was one of a handful of teams to win 4 times against NET top 10 teams.

Cal decides to leave for Arkansas, and Mark Pope is hired. In Kentucky’s early season matchup against Duke, Pope did more than prove he can win; he sparked hope. The energy in the arena felt different as if the crowd believed this win was the groundwork for a new foundation. Why? For one, it wasn’t just about beating Duke, a team that had caused heartbreak for Big Blue Nation in the past.

It was about the team’s confidence, with Pope’s leadership exuding calm intensity in a stressful moment. In years past, Kentucky may have withered, but not that night in Atlanta. They rose up and took the game. The fans never believed it was the same old Cats losing a big game, and with each bucket, they grew louder and louder. The players played harder and harder, and when the final horn sounded, the Cats were on top.

Kentucky fans are used to battling through early seasons defined by growing pains and disappointing outcomes. This year, however, each game has felt like a calculated march forward, without the early-season pitfalls that have been so deflating in recent years, granted we are only 3 games in.

So, why does it feel like Duke was such a huge win? Let's take a look at recent history since 2020:

2020-21 Season: 9–16 (8–9 SEC)*covid year missed tournament

• Wins: @ #19 Tennesse
• Losses: #7 Kansas, #22 UNC, #9 Alabama, #18 Missouri, #11 Tennessee

In addition to the losses to ranked teams, several noticeable losses occurred early in the year in non-conference games, with losses to Richmond, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. In fact, the only non-conference win that year was a blowout win in the opener, Morehead State.

2021-22 Season: 26–8 (14–4 SEC) 2 seed, opening round loss to 15 Saint Peter's

• Wins: #22 Tennessee, #5 Kansas
• Losses: #9 Duke, #21 LSU, #2 Auburn, #16 Tennessee, #18 Arkansas

Just 2 and 5 against top 25 opponents after a year of 1-6 in those games. If you could excuse the previous year to Covid, it becomes much harder to explain away the performance this year. Still, the win at Kansas was a real bright spot. Then came the opening-round loss to Saint Peter's.

2022-23 Season: 22–12 (12–6 SEC) 6 seed, second loss to 3 seed Kansas State

• Wins: #5 Tennessee, #10 Tennessee
• Losses: #2 Gonzaga, #16 UCLA, #7 Alabama, #9 Kansas

Again, not so great going just 2-4. Did pick up the opening round win against Providence, but a lackluster performance against K-State and once again a disappointing end to a season. 2 late losses to Vanderbilt, didn't help.

2023-24 Season: 23–10 (13–5 SEC) 3 seed, loss to 14 seed Oakland

• Wins: #8 Miami, #9 UNC, #13 Auburn, #13 Alabama, #4 Tennessee
• Losses: #1 Kansas, #5 Tennessee,

For the first time in three seasons, the Cats finished with more wins than losses against the top 25 teams. However, the loss to UNC Wilmington was one of the worst regular-season losses since Evansville in 2019. An early exit in March put a sour note on a fun season; a reoccurring pattern seems to be emerging—late-season losses and upsets.

One key point I want to make here is that Kentucky's post-season record (SEC and NCAA) has been 2-7 since 2020.

So that means the Duke game felt cathartic. More than a notch in the win column, it was an announcement that Kentucky is still Kentucky. Fans had to hear all offseason that without Cal, Kentucky would struggle. This was vindication in the eyes of many fans who feel Kentucky will do better without Cal than Cal will without Kentucky.

With Pope’s first big victory, Kentucky didn’t just show up; they sent a message that this team isn’t here to add to the almosts and what-ifs of recent years but to chart their path to history. It wasn't so much the lack of big wins as it was the lows of baffling losses, especially later in the season, that left a bad taste in the mouths of the BBN. Maybe the Duke win wasn't as big as it felt at the moment, but it proved the fans were right: Kentucky will always be Kentucky.

It’s early, and there’s plenty of season left, but in this one game, fans felt happy again. Will the season end similarly to the last few? Only time will tell. Until then, fans are ready to enjoy the ride.