Let’s be honest—every fan base believes they have a chance. It’s May. Optimism is free. But history, rosters, and results have a funny way of cutting through hope like a hot knife through a cold SEC Tournament elimination.
With the transfer portal frenzy slowing and rosters taking shape, we’re separating the true contenders from the pretenders in the SEC. And while a handful of teams are loading up for March, others are quietly assembling a roster destined for a Wednesday or Thursday night exit in Nashville.
Here are the five SEC teams sitting squarely in the "No Chance" tier to win the conference in 2025.
1. South Carolina Gamecocks
2024 SEC Record: 2–16
Portal Rank: 14th (6 transfers, 89.17 avg rating)
Lamont Paris worked miracles in 2023-24, but last season showed the reality: South Carolina finished with just two league wins, no reliable scorer, and a rotation that looked completely overwhelmed in nearly every SEC game. Now? The Gamecocks brought in six players from the portal, none rated higher than a three-star. With no elite talent and one of the league’s least dynamic offenses, this team looks headed straight back to the basement.
Bottom line: No depth. No stars. No chance.
2. LSU Tigers
2024 SEC Record: 3–15
Portal Rank: 4th (7 transfers, 92.80 avg)
LSU’s portal class looks good on paper, but this is fool’s gold. Sure, Matt McMahon brought in volume—but last season proved he has no blueprint to win in the SEC. The Tigers dropped 15 of 18 league games last year, and they were often noncompetitive. It’s hard to see this group—no matter how shiny the stars—turning the corner.
Bottom line: Talent isn’t the problem. Culture and cohesion are.
3. Vanderbilt Commodores
2024 SEC Record: 8–10
Portal Rank: 11th (6 transfers, 90.80 avg)
Vanderbilt’s record was passable last season, but it was misleading. The Commodores lost four straight to end the year, often looked stagnant on offense, and now face a rebuild after key departures. Their portal haul lacks any game-changing pieces, and there’s no sign they’ve solved their backcourt scoring issues. Playing in Memorial Magic only works when there’s actual magic on the roster.
Bottom line: Outmatched, outgunned, and out of contention.
4. Missouri Tigers
2024 SEC Record: 10–8
Portal Rank: 13th (5 transfers, 90.00 avg)
Missouri returns from a semi-successful season—on paper. But anyone who watched them knew their wins came at home, and they struggled away from friendly confines going only 3-7 on the road in the SEC. Now they’re trying to reload with five low-rated transfers and a roster full of questions. Mizzou’s ceiling feels closer to 14th place than title contention.
Bottom line: Mediocre roster in a brutal league.
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs
2024 SEC Record: 8–10
Portal Rank: 16th (5 transfers, 91.00 avg)
It’s hard to be last in portal rankings in today’s SEC, but Mississippi State managed. After a middling year, the Bulldogs brought in just five new faces, most of them afterthoughts. They were average last year in a league that’s gotten better, and they haven’t kept up. Chris Jans’ teams play tough defense, but you need more than that to finish in the top tier of this version of the SEC.
Bottom line: The defense might hang, but the offense is a black hole.
Final thoughts
Every season has surprise stories, but in a conference as deep as the SEC, the margin for error is razor thin. These five teams are miles behind the elite in terms of roster talent, chemistry, and proven success. While anything can happen, these programs would need a miracle run just to sniff the top five—let alone a title.
Kentucky’s reloaded. Alabama’s retooled. Florida’s ready. But these squads? They’re just trying to avoid Wednesday.
note, all records are from secsports.com and transfer portal rankings from 247Sports