Predicting the Wildcats' second half and Mark Stoops' path to job security

Let me be clear from the start: It is very unlikely that Mark Stoops, the head football coach of the Kentucky Wildcats, will be let go or even move on. The buyout is $4 million if Stoops leaves on his own. If Kentucky wants to move on, it could be as much as $44 million (there are some caveats that I will need to explain later). That's a lot to pay and most likely won't happen. There is a scenario where this season tanks completely, and the pressure to move on is immense, but even that isn't likely.

So, I say a bit tongue in cheek that this is the pathway for Mark Stoops to save his job. His job is pretty secure because of his big contract. Therefore, maybe the better way to view this article is - how he can get off the hot seat. How can he rebuild the trust of the fans who are ready to kick him to the curb?

This is the pathway and the prediction it will take for fans to go: This Stoops guy deserves another year. Maybe some fans are already well beyond that, but here's how he gets off the hot seat.

Of course, there is a win-out scenario. He could win out, end the year with a 9-3 record, and win over Ole Miss, Texas, Tennesee, and Lousiville. That would certainly do it. That's unrealistic. It's even more unrealistic than his firing at the end of the season.

If he wants to rebuild his trust with the fanbase and get off the hot seat, below is the realistic scenario.

Must win games

There are three games he has to win to see this scenario through. It absolutely has to have these ones. Florida, Auburn, Murray State. I don't see a scenario in which the discontent goes away if he loses one of these or, God forbid, all or even two of them.

You have to be 3-0 in these games: Florida, Auburn, Murray State.

Need at least one of these games

Kentucky plays two rivals and one Goliath. Stoops literally can't go 0-3 in these games. If he loses to Tennessee, Louisville, and Texas, the fans may riot in the streets (or at least online behind keyboards).

I'm not even sure one of them is enough, but it may be. A big win over Tennessee would be fantastic but then to end the season with a loss to Louisville would be brutal. However, if the loss to Tennessee happens and you end the year with a win to Louisville, maybe there's enough contentment to ride into the offseason.

In these three games you need to at least be 1-2; Tennessee, Texas, Louisville.

Here are two realistic scenarios where Stoops is still on the hot seat:

Scenario 1

Let's say in that first group of games, Kentucky is 2-1. Let's say they lost to Florida in the Swamp. And then they are 1-2 in those next three games listed. That would put Kentucky at 6-6 and barely bowl-eligible. I don't see the Big Blue Nation pleased with this. However, this may be the most realistic scenario.

Scenario 2

Let's say in that first group of games, Kentucky goes 3-0. In that second group of games, they go 0-3. This would also put them at 6-6 and barely bowl-eligible. Once again, I think Big Blue Nation is enraged at this, especially with two rival losses on there.

Scenario 3 - Stoops barely gets off the hot seat

Let's say Kentucky goes 2-1 in that first group of games but also goes 2-1 in that second group of games. With the two wins against Tennessee and Lousiville, this would put the Wildcats at 7-5 with some big wins on the year over Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Louisville. This may get Stoops off the hot seat, but barely.

Obviously, more scenarios could play out, but I wanted this article to be as realistic as possible. I think a best-case scenario is that Kentucky is 7-5, most likely 6-6, and pessimistically 5-7.

How many times Stoops has finished at each record in his head coaching career at Kentucky?

7 wins - four times.
5 wins - three times.
10 wins - two times.
2 wins - one time.
8 wins - one time.

It seems like this team is always destined for 5 or 7 wins. Which season will this one be? The Wildcats are on track for both. What record would help Stoops get off the hot seat?