Kentucky hosts Ole Miss in a rare 11 AM EST tip-off, meaning West Coast Cat fans will be having breakfast with their team this morning thanks to Winter Storm Fern.
The oddsmakers over at FanDuel have set the line with Kentucky as a 9.5-point favorite (-120). The moneyline sits heavily in Kentucky's favor at -630, while Ole Miss is a +450 underdog. The total for the game is set at 143.5.
But the time slot and the betting lines aren't the headline. The biggest story is Kentucky's four-game win streak colliding with the return of Travis Perry. Perry, who transferred from Kentucky to Ole Miss after his lone season in Lexington, will be back in Rupp Arena to try to beat his boyhood team.
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss odds show the Cats may be finding their groove
The Cats being a nearly double-digit favorite is a good thing. Now, odds aren't the be-all and end-all, but Vegas doesn't like to lose money. So if they are hanging a number that big on a conference game, they have quite a bit of confidence the Cats will roll.
How to watch and listen to the Cats
You can catch the game on TV on ESPN.
Streaming options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FuboTV, Sling TV (Blue &Orange Plan)
Radio options: Online: Stream live at UKAthletics.com or on iHeartRadio via WLAP 630.
Local FM/AM Stations:
Lexington: 98.1 FM / 630 WLAP
Louisville: 840 AM WHAS
London: 103.9 FM WWEL
Hazard/Pikeville: 101.1 WSGS
Madisonville: 93.9 FM WKTG
Travis Perry may go off, or he may struggle big time
History tells us that when former Wildcats enter Rupp Arena wearing the wrong colors, the pressure often weighs heavier than the nostalgia.
Bryce Hopkins looked like a world-beater at Providence, but when he matched up against Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament, the emotions seemed to get the better of him. He finished with just 7 points on 2-of-9 shooting. He did grab 8 rebounds, though, as the Cats knocked the Friars out of the tourney.
Hopkins again struggled this year, he had 13 points but was just 4-11 from the floor.
For Perry, a kid who grew up dreaming of wearing Kentucky blue, walking onto that floor as a villain, even a polite one, is a different kind of mental hurdle. He may try to do too much too early, and if the first shot doesn't fall, it could be a long morning.
On the flip side, Chris Lofton seemed to be pumped every time he played against Kentucky. In 2006, he lit up Rupp Arena with 31 points on 11/18 shooting. The former Mr. Basketball loved beating Kentucky while at Tennessee.
So the pressure could help him, or it could hurt him. But it will be interesting to see how he responds to however Rupp decides to welcome him back.
Prediction: The numbers favor Kentucky
When you look at the stats, Kentucky has the advantage in almost every major category.
Offensively, the Cats are scoring 83.1 points per game compared to Ole Miss at 75.5, and their average scoring margin is significantly higher (+12.4 vs +4.3). Kentucky also moves the ball better, averaging 17.1 assists to the Rebels' 14.0, and shoots it more efficiently with an effective field goal percentage of 54.7%.
Defensively, the teams are nearly identical in points allowed (roughly 71 per game), but Kentucky is more disruptive. The Cats average more steals (7.8) and grab more defensive rebounds (24.4) than Ole Miss.
Kentucky has the better stats on paper, but as we have seen, that is not always how it plays out. However, in this case, we think it does. The early start time might make the crowd groggy for the first five minutes, but the talent gap and the "homecoming jitters" for Perry will likely tilt this heavily in Kentucky's favor.
The key for the Cats will come in the form of Trent Noah. Stepping into some of the minutes vacated after the Kam Williams injury, Noah will need to come in and give the Cats good minutes. He doesn't need to score a ton of points; just go in and do the little things like rebounding and passing. Because we think Noah will do very well, we believe this game is going to be a little easier than the last 4.
Prediction: Kentucky covers the spread and wins 80-65.