Kentucky women's basketball got the job done on Thursday night. The Cats survived an ugly road test to beat Auburn 63-56.
And thank goodness they did. Because the stakes for Sunday's regular-season finale against No. 3 South Carolina just became absolutely massive.
Right now, the Cats are sitting at 8-7 in conference play. That puts them in a three-way tie for the sixth seed alongside Ole Miss and Tennessee.
In the newly expanded SEC, securing a top-eight seed is everything. It guarantees a crucial first-round bye in the SEC Tournament. But the margin for error is razor-thin, and Kentucky's head-to-head resume complicates things.
While Kentucky owns the tiebreaker over Ole Miss (thanks to a 74-57 win in February), they are on the wrong side of the tiebreakers against Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee.
Here is exactly what is at stake when the Cats tip off against the undefeated Gamecocks on Sunday.
If Kentucky pulls off the upset
If the Cats can knock off South Carolina, they finish 9-7. That completely locks up a top-eight seed and a crucial bye.
A win means Kentucky stays comfortably ahead of Georgia and Alabama, who can finish no better than 8-8. Even if Tennessee and Ole Miss both win to force a tie at 9-7, Kentucky's resume will keep them safely in the top tier thanks to the win against Ole Miss.
If Kentucky secures the six or seven seed, they are looking at a potential second-round matchup against a team in the 9-11 range. That likely means a showdown with Texas A&M (who UK blew out 75-55), but Joni Taylor has the Aggies winning 5 of 6. It could also mean a massive revenge game against Georgia or Alabama.
If Kentucky loses to South Carolina
If the Cats fall to the Gamecocks, things get incredibly stressful for both the team and BBN.
A loss drops Kentucky to 8-8. And because Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee all hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cats, Big Blue Nation will be forced to aggressively scoreboard-watch.
The Cats will need help to stay in the top eight:
- They need Texas to beat Alabama. If the Crimson Tide pulls off the upset, they jump Kentucky.
- They need Vanderbilt to beat Tennessee. If the Vols win, they secure their spot ahead of the Cats.
- They need Florida to beat Georgia. If the Bulldogs win, they jump Kentucky.
If those games don't go Kentucky's way, the Cats could easily fall right out of the top eight. That would force them to play in the opening round of the SEC Tournament.
A drop to the nine or 10 seed likely sets up a frustrating first-round matchup against Florida (who UK narrowly beat 94-89) or Mississippi State (who beat UK 71-59 back in January).
Sunday is going to be an absolute dogfight. And the entire postseason picture is riding on it. Can the Lady Cats pull off some Memorial Magic of their own?