The Kentucky Wildcats take on Jackson State tonight as the Wildcats continue to open the season with buy-game opportunities. Jackson State may be the worst team they have faced thus far; they are 0-5. It may be easy to assume that they've only played strong FBS opponents with that record, but they've also lost to High Point at that time.
Jackson State is a team that is struggling, and even Kentucky head coach Mark Pope had to find a way to say that they aren't overlooking them in his press conference: "They're playing really hard; they are competing." It's a team that struggles on defense to guard, allowing 52.3% field goal percentage to their opponents (worst in the nation) and 47.2% from three.
Offensively, they struggle to hold on to the ball; they average 15.2 turnovers per game, with 76 total already on the year. It could be a rough go for Jackson State this season, and tonight against Kentucky, that forces about 10 turnovers a game so far this season.
Pope wants 30 three-point attempts. He made that very clear in his weekly presser. They've only hit it once against Bucknell with 36 attempts (Wright State 24, Duke 25, Lipscomb 25). This will be a key tonight, and you will see the Wildcats shooting a lot of threes to get there. When Mark Pope asks for something, the players usually go out and make it happen.
This could be their highest output of the season, and they've already had two 100-point games and one 97-point game. The combo of Jackson State's defense and Kentucky's focus on threes could make this game ugly quickly.
Jackson State has already allowed two opponents to have their highest-scoring efforts on them: Houston (97) and Xavier (94). Vanderbilt also scored 94, but it was their second-highest-scoring game. This is poised to be a blood bath. This leaves some fans to wonder if Kentucky will break records tonight. The potential is there.
Jackson State this season is the WORST field-goal percentage defense in the country, allowing opponents to shoot 60.4% from the field.
— WT - Lamont Enthusiast (@WildcatsTongue) November 22, 2024
They are also the 2nd worst 3PT% defense, allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from three.
The Rupp Arena single game scoring record is 127 👀 pic.twitter.com/5bxLZCXQF3
If we look at the odds for the game, one oddsmaker thinks Kentucky is going to score over 107.5. This is the over/under for their output, and that's obviously insanely high. Yet, it's very attainable considering all the above.
Kentucky is a projected 34.5-point favorite over Jackson State tonight, with a projected 96.5 Team Total Points.
— Tres Terrell (@TerrellTres) November 22, 2024
Crazy thing is that DK is giving you odds for UK to score over 107.5 points if you want it and that just goes to show that they are aware of the offense’s potential.
The FanDuel odds makers see it a little differently. Kentucky is the 34.5-point favorite, but the over/under is 157.5. This means they see the final score as around 96-61.