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Kentucky vs. Florida prediction: Points will be scarce – bet the under

Lackluster offenses and one impressive defense could lead to two unimpressive offensive performances.

By Mark Knight

Sep 30, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats running back Ray Davis (1) is brought down by Florida Gators cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. (3) during the fourth quarter at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Sep 30, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats running back Ray Davis (1) is brought down by Florida Gators cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. (3) during the fourth quarter at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
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The Kentucky Wildcats head to Gainesville, Florida, to take on the Florida Gators. Both teams are looking for their second SEC win. Neither team has been consistently impressive this season, and both are trying to rebound from a tough loss.

Kentucky's offense has been lackluster this entire year, partly because of how slow they play. Fansided's Florida site dug into the Wildcats offense and found this, "Kentucky takes, on average, 29.9 seconds between plays. That is the 8th slowest time in the country. And perhaps the most relevant stat of them all is that Kentucky punts the ball 0.8 times for every drive that ends in a score. In other words, more drives end in points than punts for Kentucky, and they are 55th in this metric, just a tick below Texas A&M, Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia."

This may sound surprising, but we watched the Georgia and Ole Miss game and know that this is legitimately the plan. This is the way head coach Mark Stoops wants to play. Slow, deliberate, and ultimately without explosive plays, clunky.

Kentucky has never scored more than 20 points in any SEC game. Their offense isn't built for high production or performance, and their defense is stingy. They also haven't allowed an SEC (or any other opponent) to score more than 20 except for South Carolina, which may end up being anomalous for the Wildcats' defense.

The over/under line is set right now at 42 points, which is pretty low for a college football game. However, do the math. If Kentucky can't score more than 20 and they hold their opponents to 20 or less, it seems to max out a 40.

Now, throw in the fact that Florida won't have their starting quarterback and will be playing their true freshman, DJ Lagway. Oh, and they also won't have their star running back.

This game seems to be heading for a rock fight. What's the opposite of a barn burner? It's going to be that. Which if you are going to bet, it seems safe to bet the under.

My prediction:
20-13 - Kentucky

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