Kentucky (2-5) heads to Auburn (4-4) for a critical SEC road game that will define the Wildcats' bowl chances and, perhaps, the Mark Stoops tenure. The game kicks off at 7:30 on the SEC Network, and will feature 2 fanbases almost eager to lose.
Final odds
Over at FanDuel, the Cats have lost ground from their +10.5 point underdog as the week as went on. With the switch to Ashton Daniels, it may go even higher.
- Spread: Auburn -11.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +340 / Auburn -430
- Total: 44.5 (Over/Under)
A brutal matchup for the Wildcats
This is, statistically, a nightmare matchup for Kentucky's struggling offense. The Wildcats are averaging just 24.1 points per game (84th nationally) while giving up over 30 per game on defense.
The real problem lies in the trenches. Auburn's defense is legit, holding opponents to just 2.5 yards per rush, which ranks 4th in all of college football. Kentucky's entire offensive identity, even with its recent struggles, is predicated on being able to run the ball. If they can't establish the run game early, the offense will become one-dimensional and predictable.
That's a terrifying prospect, as the Wildcats' passing attack has been inconsistent at best, averaging 207 yards per game, though Cutter Boley came alive last weekend. Auburn isn't elite against the pass, but they don't have to be. Their disciplined secondary is backed by a defensive front that ranks in the Top 20 nationally in sack rate. So the offensive line better buckle up.
Final prediction
Auburn's formula is exactly what gives Mark Stoops' teams fits: a dominant defense that stops the run and forces turnovers. The Tigers boast a +0.9 turnover margin (16th nationally), while Kentucky sits at a dismal -0.7.
Expect Auburn's front seven to control the line of scrimmage, forcing Cutter Boley into difficult third-and-long situations. Without a consistent ground game, Kentucky's offense will stall out in the red zone, a recurring theme this season.
Prediction: Auburn 31, Kentucky 17
The Tigers control the clock and the line of scrimmage, and Kentucky's offense simply doesn't have the firepower or the consistency to keep up for four quarters on the road.
Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time he enjoys downtime with his family and Premier League soccer. You can find him on X here. Micah 7:7. #UptheAlbion