Kentucky vs Auburn: Breakdown and prediction: Who will prevail in this critical SEC showdown?
Mark Stoops and his Kentucky Wildcats are slated to face off with Hugh Freeze and his Auburn Tigers for the first time in 4 years under the lights in Lexington on Saturday at 7:45 (SEC Network). The Cats are looking to turn their season back around with a much-needed SEC win after 2 losses (Vandy and Florida) following the bye week. Coming off the 48-20 defeat to Florida, where Kentucky gave up a staggering 8.1 yards per play, this game becomes critical for Coach Stoops and his team; a rebound performance is a must with the team now at 3-4 (1-4 SEC).
Despite Kentucky being favored status (-1.5), the Wildcats have yet to taste SEC victory at home (0-3). We all know all about the passing struggles, but the defense allowed 259 passing yards and 197 rushing yards in the Swamp last time out. The Auburn Tigers, meanwhile, also enter on a disappointing note. Despite dominating most of the game against Missouri, Auburn imploded in the 4th, giving up 15 straight points in the fourth. Sitting at 2-5 (0-4 SEC), the Tigers’ season under Coach Hugh Freeze has been rough, making this game equally crucial for the Tigers
Now lets talk stats courtesy of the NCAA and ESPN.
Kentucky | Auburn | |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 20.4 | 28.1 |
Opposing points per game | 19.3 | 20.9 |
Yards per play given up | 5.58 | 4.95 |
Rushing per game | 152.0 | 157.6 |
Passing per game | 167.9 | 264.3 |
Statistically, Kentucky’s defense has a slight edge in points allowed per game, but Auburn holds an advantage in most of the remaining spots. Kentucky’s pass game has been a weak point all season (dead last in SEC passing yards per game, familiar territory for a Mark Stoops team), making Auburn’s young secondary an interesting area for potential plays if Brock and his receivers can exploit it. Given both teams' flaws, the winner will be the one who capitalizes better on their opponent’s mistakes.
Prediction
In my opinion, that will be Auburn. They will do just enough offensively to squeeze ahead in the first half, forcing Kentucky to play catch-up, where the offense has struggled all year. Kentucky keeps it close but ultimately drops another home game, and bowl hopes hinge on pulling an upset.
Kentucky: 17
Auburn: 27
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