If you are a betting person, you are likely sweating out this Vanderbilt-Kentucky clash.
Our friends over at FanDuel have Kentucky listed as just a 1.5-point favorite. In the world of college basketball, that essentially makes this a toss-up once you factor in the home-court advantage.
But when you look back at the last meeting? Seeing Kentucky as the favorite is more than a little surprising. The last time these two teams met, Vanderbilt delivered a 25-point beatdown that left Big Blue Nation searching for answers.
Vanderbilt clearly has the offensive edge over Kentucky basketball
When you sit down to break this game down, the stats jump off the page in favor of the Commodores.
Vandy is currently scoring 87.3 points per game, which is a full seven points more than the Cats. Their Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) also sits nearly three points higher than Kentucky's at 56%.
For those who aren't stat nerds, eFG% is a metric that gives extra weight to three-pointers, acknowledging that a shot from deep is worth more than a layup. Essentially, Vanderbilt isn't just shooting more; they are shooting much more efficiently. They turn it over less, and they get to the charity stripe more often.
So, where does Kentucky have an advantage? Rebounding.
Kentucky averages a 33% offensive rebound percentage compared to Vanderbilt's 28%. However, that size advantage was nonexistent in Nashville. In that game, offensive boards were tied at 13, and Vandy actually outrebounded the Cats 43-37.
That simply cannot happen today. If the Cats want to win, they have to use their size to punish the Commodores on the glass.
A battle at the charity stripe
Defensively, the two teams are relatively even. The only standout is that Vandy averages more steals (8.4 to 7.2), but they also play a much more aggressive, foul-heavy style.
Vanderbilt gets called for nearly 20 fouls per game. That means the Cats need to make their free throws, something they failed to do in the first matchup. Kentucky was just 11-of-19 from the line in Nashville. If Vandy is willing to foul, Kentucky has to make them pay.
Computer models are split
The analytical world is just as torn as the betting public.
ESPN (56.4% victory for Kentucky) and EvanMiya (50.1%) both give the slight edge to the Wildcats. Meanwhile, the heavy hitters like KenPom (47%) and BartTorvik (43%) are leaning toward a Vanderbilt victory.
I don’t have that problem.
I believe that if Kentucky is going to make any noise in Nashville next month, they have to win this game going away. Rupp Arena will be rocking, and the Cats have all the "revenge fuel" they should ever need.
Good teams don’t lose this game at home. Give me the Cats in a statement win.
WBN Prediction: Kentucky 81, Vanderbilt 70