Good morning BBN, football is back! In just a few hours, Kentucky will face off with Toledo in Kroger Field at 12:45 PM EST to kick off the season. You can catch the coverage on SEC Network with Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, and Alyssa Lang on the call.
More than just a game
Kentucky faces a grueling schedule, ranked in the top 3 in terms of toughness, and cannot afford a slow start. A loss here could spell the end of bowl eligibility before the season even truly begins—that’s how critical this opener is. We are not going to sugar coat it.
A win probably won't quell the cloud of doubt hanging over Mark Stoops' future with the team. After all, an SEC program should handle a MAC team easily. But if the game is close, even a victory may not be enough to keep fans invested in what could be a very long season.
The oddsmakers seem to agree on the expected outcome. The line, which started at Kentucky -9.5 and briefly shrank to -7.5, has now risen back up to Kentucky -9.5 on FanDuel. That swing tells a story, and it leads us to our final projection for the game.
Our official prediction: How the Cats get it done
Let's be clear: Kentucky will win this football game. If they don't, Mark Stoops should not be able to finish this season. Losing this game is a fireable offense, regardless of the buyout. He should be out of Lexington before Jeff Ruby's closes.
With the spotlight shining brighter on the football program after Mark Pope's successful start, Stoops has felt the pressure that John Calipari often shielded him from. That motivation and desire better be ready from the opening kick, because Toledo is coming to Lexington to win. They will believe they are the better team when they take the field.
We think this will be a low-scoring slugfest between two coaches who want to grind the game to a halt. The difference-maker will be Kentucky's offensive line. If they play well, this game will be an easy win. If they play badly, Toledo has a puncher's chance of pulling off the upset.
Ultimately, the Cats' strength in the trenches will be too much for Toledo to match.
Official prediction
Kentucky wins 24-14. The game will never be as close as that score indicates, as the Cats will absolutely dominate the time of possession.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time, he spends time with his family, and watching Premier League soccer. #UpTheAlbion