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A revenge game and a 21-point warning make Toledo a dangerous opener for Kentucky

Toledo brings a high-powered offense and a familiar face seeking revenge to Lexington. Can Kentucky overcome a critical 21-point hurdle in their season opener?
ByDrew Holbrook|
Nov 16, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Cutter Boley (8) celebrates with running back Chip Trayanum (4) after carrying the ball for a first down during the third quarter against the Murray State Racers at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Nov 16, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Cutter Boley (8) celebrates with running back Chip Trayanum (4) after carrying the ball for a first down during the third quarter against the Murray State Racers at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

A potent offense meets a proven defense

When Kentucky takes the field Saturday against Toledo, it won’t just be another early-season tune-up. The Rockets are as steady a program as you’ll find outside the Power Five, riding a streak of 15 straight winning seasons.

The 21-point magic number for Toledo

The Rockets are also unpredictable — this is the same team that destroyed Mississippi State in Starkville last year, 41-17, and then turned around and lost to Akron. That inconsistency kept them out of the MAC Championship, but they finished on a high note with a wild 48-46 bowl win over Pitt.

The first number to circle is 21. Toledo went 8-0 when scoring more than 21 points last season, but 0-5 when held to 21 or fewer. That aligns directly with Kentucky’s own struggle: the Cats had a hard time consistently hitting that mark in 2024. If the Rockets find rhythm, it’s bad news.

Who are the Rockets' key offensive weapons?

Quarterback Tucker Gleason is back for his second full season as the starter, and his experience matters. Gleason threw for nearly 2,800 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2024. Toledo’s running game was stagnant last year at just 3.45 yards per carry, but help has arrived via transfers. Most notably, ex-Kentucky back Chip Trayanum will be fired up for revenge. Expect him to run with extra purpose against his former team.

Through the air, Toledo has solid weapons. Junior Vandeross III is the proven chain-mover after hauling in 85 passes last year. Add in Eric Holley and new tight end Jacob Petersen (34 catches, 6 TDs at Holy Cross), and this offense is well balanced.

How can Kentucky exploit Toledo's defense?

Defensively, Toledo is sound. Their secondary is the best in the MAC, led by corner duo Avery Smith (58 tackles, 14 PBUs) and Nasir Bowers (2 INTs).

For Kentucky, the stat to exploit is time of possession — Toledo averaged just 26:56 per game, leaving their defense exposed. If the Cats can control tempo and win the second quarter (Toledo outscored foes 126-59 in that frame last year), they’ll give themselves a much easier go of it.

Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time, he spends time with his family, and watching Premier League soccer. #UpTheAlbion

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