Kentucky has suffered more than its typical share of losses this season, but the worst was arguably the 25-point blowout at the hands of Vanderbilt in Nashville last month. While the Commodores have clung to a top 25 ranking, currently 25th in the latest AP Poll, Vandy has suffered three losses since then and is just fifth in the conference at 9-6, hardly a national title threat.
After a hot 16-0 start to the season, Vanderbilt, in Year 2 under Mark Byington, has gone 5-6 and appears to be limping to the finish line in the regular season. Yet, just because the Commodores are vulnerable doesn’t mean Kentucky will be able to avenge that blowout loss when they host Vanderbilt at Rupp Arena on Saturday, because the Wildcats’ weakness Vandy exposed a month ago has only gotten worse.
Mark Pope has not found a solution for Kentucky’s ball secruity issues
Kentucky’s 25-point defeat in Nashville was marred by one glaring issue: turnovers. The Wildcats committed 15, and they were costly. Vanderbilt converted those extra possessions into 28 points, the most points off turnover Kentucky has allowed all season.
Prior to that matchup, Kentucky had protected the ball quite well. Even with starting point guard Jaland Lowe out for most of the season, the Wildcats boasted an impressive 12.7 percent turnover rate through their first 20 games. That slotted them 90th percentile (per CBBanalytics.com) in the country, and right now, that mark would be in the middle of the pack in the SEC.
As for points off turnovers, Kentucky’s opponents were averaging 11.9 per game. The Wildcats held a positive 3.6 point advantage in points off turnover per game. Since then, however, Kentucky’s turnover woes have only been exacerbated by an additional injury to starter Kam Williams and the increased play-making responsibilities placed on a young front court comprised of freshmen Malachi Moreno and Andrija Jelavic, a 21-year-old who played professionally prior to coming overseas.
Kentucky is 4-4 in its last eight games, which stretches back to the first meeting with Vanderbilt, and during that period, Mark Pope’s team has a 14.1 percent turnover rate and is allowing 15.9 points off turnovers. The Wildcats are also only scoring 10.4 points off turnovers per game, which eroded a +3.6 margin to -4.5.
Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is still third in the SEC in opponent turnover rate and averages 17.3 points off turnovers per game, also third-best in the conference. Only Georgia and Texas A&M are better in both categories, and only nine days ago, the Bulldogs managed an 86-78 win at Rupp Arena with 22 points off turnovers.
Kentucky desperately needs to protect the ball, but even in Tuesday night’s win over South Carolina, Moreno and Jelavic combined for six of the team’s 15 turnovers. So, it doesn’t appear that Pope is going to fix that problem anytime soon, or with as many injuries as Kentucky has faced, if a solution even exists.