Year 2 of the Mark Pope era hasn’t been a smooth ride for Big Blue Nation. Kentucky is outside the AP Top 25 at 15-7 with a few ugly losses on its ledger, but on Saturday, the Wildcats bounced back from a drubbing at the hands of then No. 18 Vanderbilt to down John Calipari and No. 15 Arkansas 85-77 on the road.
Will that win over Coach Cal be a stabilizing force for Kentucky? Well, that may depend on how the Cats handle a trap game on Wednesday night at Rupp Arena. Before a two-game stretch against No. 25 Tennessee and No. 17 Florida, which is rounding back into championship form, Kentucky hosts 11-11 (1-8) Oklahoma, and if Pope’s team doesn’t clean up its most glaring issue, it could turn into an ugly upset.
Kentucky misses Kam Williams badly
Kentucky’s lineup has taken a few different forms this season, and the latest iteration is without Kam Williams. The 6-foot-8 Tulane transfer suffered a broken foot on January 21 against Texas, and his absence has left a fairly significant void.
Williams, though he was playing 20 minutes a game and averaging just under seven points, was one of Kentucky’s most valuable players. With him on the court, Kentucky’s net rating of +29.7 is 98th percentile in the country (per CBBanaltyics). His ability to space the floor as a shooter at 6-foot-8 gave Kentucky a significant size advantage, and in lineups that feature Williams, who only grabbed 2.5 rebounds a game, Kentucky’s defensive rebounding rate of 71.6 percent was 78th percentile.
Without Williams, Pope has gone to a starting five of Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen, Colin Chandler, Andrija Jelavic, and Malachi Moreno. That lineup is not just absent Williams, but also Jayden Quaintance, who has played in four games, and Jaland Lowe, who has been out most of the year as well. The current starting lineup construction has a +5.7 net rating (68th percentile), but has serious deficiencies.
Mark Pope seems to be out of answers for Kentucky’s rebounding struggles
Those issues are on both ends of the floor. Without Williams, the lineup struggles to find efficient shots, reflected in an effective field goal percentage of 45.2 percent (5th percentile). But the issue that Oklahoma threatens to exploit is that group’s lack of rebounding. Its defensive rebounding percentage falls to 65.5 percent (15th percentile).
Over the last five games, three of which have come without Williams on the floor, Kentucky’s defensive rebounding rate for all lineups is 63.4 percent. In the minutes without center Malachi Moreno on the floor, it falls even further to 62.5 percent.
That’s a golden opportunity for the Sooners, which don’t do many things well but do rebound at an impressive clip. For the season, their offensive rebounding rate is 34.1 percent, which is eighth in the SEC and 78th percentile nationally. Their 15.4 second-chance points per game is third best in the league, trailing only Florida and Tennessee, Kentucky’s next two opponents.
Oklahoma won’t be the only team to expose this glaring weakness while Williams is out, but the Sooners could be the first on Wednesday night.