It has been two years since Kentucky and North Carolina last met, but the stakes feel higher this time around.
The Wildcats have won the last two matchups in this blue-blood series, but Tuesday night brings a different challenge to Rupp Arena. Kentucky enters with a high-octane offense, while UNC brings a physical, veteran squad looking to muddy the waters.
Here is how the books see it and how we expect it to play out.
The final odds for Kentucky basketball and UNC
Our friends over at FanDuel have set the line:
- Spread: Kentucky -5.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky -245 | UNC +198
- Total: 160.5
Stats that will decide who wins this matchup
Kentucky enters this game scoring nearly 90 points per game with a top-5 efficiency profile on both ends of the floor. The Wildcats hold a significant edge in effective field goal percentage (58.2% vs. 53.6%) and possess a deeper roster of shooters.
However, the Tar Heels have a distinct style advantage if they can control the pace. UNC is elite at getting to the foul line and boasts the No. 2 interior defense in the country regarding opponent two-point percentage.
That means Kentucky will have to make jump shots, something that they have not done at a high rate this year.
Keys to the game
- Tempo vs. control: Kentucky wants a controlled track meet; UNC wants a wrestling match.
- The whistle: UNC’s biggest offensive weapon is the free-throw line. If Kentucky fouls early and often, the rhythm of the game shifts to the Heels.
- Ball movement: As Mark Pope noted, if the ball sticks, Kentucky struggles. If it pops, they are nearly unbeatable.
Final prediction
The numbers heavily favor the home team. Kentucky is deeper, shoots it better at every level, and has a defense capable of forcing empty possessions. While UNC’s ability to get to the line will keep it competitive, the Wildcats have too much firepower in Rupp. Mark Pope gets the first big win of 2025.
Score Prediction: Kentucky 86, North Carolina 78