Welcome to Hate Week. Or, perhaps more accurately for 2025, welcome to "Self-Loathing Week."
Usually, the Governor's Cup is a clash of titans, or at least a clash of two fanbases puffed up with irrational confidence. This year? It feels more like two wounded animals limping toward a watering hole, just hoping not to get eaten. It is pretty sad really.
Kentucky is coming off a humiliation against Vanderbilt where they surrendered record-breaking numbers to Diego Pavia. Louisville is licking its wounds after getting absolutely demolished by SMU, 38-6. Neither fanbase is happy. Neither coach is popular right now, though Jeff Brohm still has a ways to go to catch Mark Stoops in that category. And honestly, the national media has already decided this game belongs in the dumpster, relegating it to the ACC Network at noon.
But for those of us in the Bluegrass, we still have to watch. And Vegas has officially weighed in on who they think is the "lesser of two evils."
The opening line
According to FanDuel, the oddsmakers are giving the slight edge to the home team.
- Spread: Louisville -3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Louisville -162, Kentucky +134
- Total: 47.5
Reading between the lines for Kentucky and Louisville football
Let's translate what that -3.5 spread actually means.
In college football betting, home-field advantage is typically worth about 2.5 to 3 points. So, when you see Louisville favored by just over a field goal at L&N Stadium, Vegas is essentially telling you this game is a coin flip on a neutral field.
They aren't saying Louisville is good; they are saying Louisville is at home.
The total of 47.5 is also telling. In modern college football, anything under 50 suggests a defensive struggle (or offensive incompetence in this case). Given that these two teams combined for just 23 points last week, and 14 of those were Kentucky scoring in garbage time against Vandy's backups, that number might actually be generous.
The bowl or bust stakes
Despite the apathy, the stakes for Kentucky literally could not be higher in a crappy season.
At 5-6, the Wildcats are playing for their postseason lives. A win means a bowl game, extra practices, and avoiding the embarrassment of a second straight losing season. A loss means Mark Stoops finishes 5-7, misses a bowl for another year, lose money and that practice time, and enters the offseason with a scorching hot seat.
Louisville, meanwhile, is just trying to stop the bleeding. The Cardinals are staring down the barrel of a fourth straight loss to end the season. Jeff Brohm needs this win to salvage some dignity and prove he hasn't lost the locker room completely.
The bottom line
This isn't going to be pretty. It’s going to be a grimy, hateful, low-scoring affair played between two teams that look like they would rather be anywhere else.
But it’s the Governor's Cup. The records get thrown out, the hate gets dialed up, and for one afternoon, all that matters is being the team that doesn't completely embarrass themselves on national (cable) television.
Kentucky has dominated this rivalry recently, but with the way the offense looked in Nashville, trusting them to cover +3.5 feels like a gamble in the truest sense of the word.
Hold your nose as you watch this one.
Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time he enjoys downtime with his family and Premier League soccer. You can find him on X here. Micah 7:7. #UptheAlbion