The Cats and Hoosiers will renew their rivalry tonight in Rupp Arena. Mark Pope and Kentucky are desperate for some good news. Recruiting seems to be slipping, the team's effort is being questioned, and the Cats have not won a single p4 game this year. The Hoosiers have some elite shooters, and with Kentucky's defensive issues, there is a lot on the line. The betting market is treating Kentucky–Indiana like the coin flip it feels like.
What the line, the numbers and the experts say about Kentucky–Indiana
Over at FanDuel, Kentucky sits as a narrow favorite at around –3.5 with a –205 moneyline, while Indiana is +3.5 at roughly –102 and +168 to win outright. The spread has narrowed by 2 points since opening, as Kentucky was once a 5.5 point favorite. The total is parked at 157.5, with a slight lean toward the over. That kind of number says one thing: Vegas sees two teams close enough that shot-making and whistles could decide it.
On paper, Indiana actually looks a touch scarier offensively right now.
The Hoosiers are averaging 88.2 points per game (No. 28 nationally) with 20.4 assists (No. 3). They shoot 38.2 percent from three and 61.5 percent on twos, good for the No. 8 overall shooting efficiency in the country. They share it, they move it and they punish mistakes.
Kentucky is not far behind in raw production at 85.5 points per game (No. 44) and 19.1 assists (No. 13), but the Cats have been more inconsistent against top competition. The three-point percentage sits at 32.9 percent, and we’ve already seen what happens when the ball stops moving against good defenses.
Where Kentucky has a built-in edge is on the glass. The Wildcats grab 42.1 rebounds per game (No. 17), with elite defensive rebounding numbers. Indiana, meanwhile, sits at 36.2 boards per game and ranks near the bottom nationally in offensive rebounding. If Kentucky actually crashes the offensive glass for once and leans into that advantage, it can tilt extra possessions back in its favor.
The advanced models lean Kentucky, but not by much. Bart Torvik and KenPom both project the Wildcats to win a close one at home. ESPN’s analytics give Kentucky about a 60 percent chance to take it.
The human experts are more split.
Nationally, CBS’ picks are mostly a Kentucky win. Though only some writers are riding with Kentucky to cover at home. Kyle Boone, on the other hand, likes Indiana plus the points and Cameron Salerno is the lone writer to pick the Hoosiers straight up.
Locally, KSR’s staff leans Kentucky overall, but not unanimously. Tyler Thompson, Nick Roush, Zack Geoghegan, Jack Pilgrim and Drew Franklin are rolling with the Cats. Jacob Polachek and Adam Luckett are on the Indiana side of the fence.
That matches the eye test: nobody really trusts Kentucky yet against good teams.
Here at WBN, we’re bracing for another night where an opponent walks into Rupp and gets comfortable from three against a defense that still hasn’t fully committed to communicating for 40 minutes. Indiana’s ball movement and shooting, combined with Kentucky’s occasional disappearing acts, feels like a bad mix.
Our pick: Indiana 89, Kentucky 77.
If the Cats prove us wrong and finally put together a locked-in defensive performance against a high-end opponent, it will be the first real sign this season that things are turning. Until we see it, we’re betting on the team that already looks like it knows exactly who it is.