Big Blue Nation doesn’t know whether to laugh, cry, or bet their farms on the under
FanDuel has set the over/under for Kentucky football’s win total in 2025 at a meager 4.5 — the lowest of the Mark Stoops era since his rebuilding days over a decade ago. Coming off a 4-8 season in 2024, and with season ticket sales already down 12%, it’s clear that confidence in the program has taken a hit. But is this line an insult… or a reflection of deeper realities?
Let’s dive into the real reasons why this number is so low — and whether it deserves to be.
Why Vegas is fading Kentucky: Past performance meets present doubts
Start with the obvious: Kentucky finished 2024 with just four wins; including a 38-14 loss to Louisville that felt like a closing statement, not a footnote. The defense couldn’t hold, the offense couldn’t find consistency, and once again, the offensive line looked like a shadow of the Big Blue Wall of years past.
But 2025 isn’t just a reset — it’s a pivot.
Mark Stoops is entering Year 13, and unlike past transitions, he didn’t go portal-heavy at wide receiver or quarterback. Instead, Kentucky seems to be quietly embracing a new identity: run-first, smashmouth football, with some new toys in the backfield and a quarterback who can finally move.
Meet Kentucky’s new ground game
This might not be the Wing-T offense — though I mean would it surprise you — but Kentucky is clearly reengineering its attack to be run-dominant.
Key names in the backfield:
Seth McGowan (Transfer – New Mexico State): A physical, downhill runner who’s healthy again and hungry to prove himself.
Dante Dowdell (Transfer – Nebraska): He’s a bruiser who could thrive in the SEC with volume but will definitley carry the ball in short yardage and goal to go situations. Both of those areas Kentucky was dreadful in. The Cats were 118th in the country in red zone percentage. Not good Bob.
Jamarion Wilcox: Showed serious burst last season and has insiders and fans hoping for a breakout candidate.
Jason Patterson: Stoops has praised him and said he could be an every down back.
Add in Zach Calzada, the 7th year Cuban Missle (read more about that here) transfer known for tough wins and, most importantly, a willingness to use his legs. He may not be Lamar Jackson, but Calzada’s mobility is an upgrade over recent starters and gives new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan more RPO and designed-run possibilities.
The offensive line? Well they're new but who knows if they will have time to gel.
The schedule: Easier said than done
To go over 4.5 wins, Kentucky needs five victories. Here’s how the path could look:
- Toledo
- Ole Miss
- Eastern Michigan
- South Carolina
- Georgia
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Auburn
- Florida
- Tennessee Tech
- Vanderbilt
- Louisviile
Toledo is a good team, Ole miss will be super hungry and while Eastern Michigan should be an easy game Stoops is not known for blowing teams out. Theres a real possibility of being 2-7 heading into Tennessee Tech. They would need to sweep the last 3 games to hit the over. It's possible, but unlikely.
The case for the over: Stability and identity
Yes, Kentucky is retooling. But unlike 2023 and 2024, the Wildcats aren’t trying to force a balanced offense that Stoops despises. They’re going back to the brand that won them ten games in 2021: defense, run game, and time of possession.
Defensively, the return of veterans like Alex Afari, the linebacker corps is SEC-caliber, and the secondary has quietly added experience.
More importantly, there’s buy-in. No quarterback carousel, it's Calazada. No disjointed play-calling. Hamdan and Stoops appear to be on the same page about what this team can and should be.
The Case for the under: Thin margins, tough league
Still, five wins means beating at least two SEC teams outside of Vanderbilt. That’s never easy. If the offensive line falters or if Calzada struggles, it could be another season where games slip away in the second half — just like they did in every SEC game last year except Ole Miss.
And with the fanbase already restless and attendance sagging, one or two early losses could tank morale fast.
Verdict: Lean under — but don’t mortgage the farm
Let’s be clear: this isn’t a “lock of the year” bet. But 4.5 is probably what the Cats deserve.
If the ground game takes hold and the defense holds the line, five wins is absolutely achievable. Calzada doesn’t need to be a hero — he just needs to keep the chains moving and protect the ball.
If you believe in program culture, this is the kind of spot where Stoops usually outperforms expectations.
Pick: Take the under
Projected Record: 4-8
Kentucky football isn’t dead. It’s just being reborn — under center, in the trenches, and maybe even under the radar. That’s exactly where Stoops tends to do his best work but it may not be good enough.