After a 2-1 start to the season, the Kentucky Wildcats are heading into the meat of their schedule, and the path to a bowl game looks more challenging than ever. With nine games remaining, the Cats need to find at least four more wins to get back to a bowl after missing out last year. For fans looking at the daunting slate, it’s fair to ask: where do those wins come from? We broke down the schedule to find the most likely path back to the postseason for Mark Stoops and the Cats.
The must-win "gimme" game
Let’s get the easy one out of the way. The game against Tennessee Tech is a guaranteed victory. This puts the Wildcats at three wins, meaning they need to find three more wins from the eight remaining SEC and rivalry games. This will not be a close game.
The crucial "toss-up" games
This is where the season will be won or lost. There are three games that, while difficult, are Kentucky’s most realistic chances for SEC victories.
- @ South Carolina: While the Gamecocks are getting QB LaNorris Sellers back, their offense has been anemic, averaging just 303 yards per game. This is arguably the most winnable SEC road game on the schedule.
- @ Auburn: The Tigers will be battle-tested and likely bruised after a brutal October gauntlet against ranked opponents, just like Kentucky (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri). This could be a spot where Kentucky catches a worn-down team at the right time.
- Florida: The Gators have looked dreadful, particularly on offense where QB DJ Lagway has struggled. This late-season game in a cold Kroger Field could be a battle of wills between two programs fighting for their postseason lives, and probably their coaches futures. It's only because Billy Napier fumbled the early season so bad did people stop talking about Mark Stoops' inability to field a compentent offense.
If Kentucky can win two of these three toss-up games, they will get to five wins.
The uphill battles and the season finale
Games against Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee are all likely losses for obvious reasons. These teams are College Football Playoff contenders with elite talent that will be difficult for the Cats to pull off an upset. Not impossible of course, but just not likely.
This scenario likely leaves Kentucky sitting at five wins heading into the final two games. The matchup against a surprisingly tough, top-20 Vanderbilt team led by QB Diego Pavia looks as hard as it has been in recent years. A loss down in Nashville is probably in the cards for the Cats.
Speaking of cards, this means, once again, the season could come down to the Governor's Cup against Louisville. With Vince Marrow on the opposing sideline, the emotions will be at an all-time high. In this rivalry, you throw the records out. A win against the Cardinals could be the ticket to a bowl game.
For the optimists, the path is there. For the realists, finding three or four more wins on this schedule will require a significant turnaround.
Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time he enjoyes downtime with his family and Premier League soccer.You can find him on X here.Micah 7:7. #UptheAlbion