Florida is red-hot. Kentucky is on a roll. Something has to give today in Gainesville. This game isn't just a ranked matchup; it is basically going to dictate the SEC title race.
If the Cats go down there and get a win, Kentucky moves into a three-way tie for first place with three losses, and Kentucky holds the tiebreaker over both Arkansas and Florida.
If they lose? It gets ugly. Kentucky drops back into a massive 7-4 logjam in the middle of the conference with Vanderbilt, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas A&M (these records are as of 9 AM EST today, and will change after publishing).
With a brutal closing stretch coming up that includes Florida and Vandy again, we desperately need this one to separate from the pack.
Vegas says it won't be close
Our friends over at FanDuel clearly do not believe in the Kentucky hype. They have Florida as a massive 12.5-point favorite on Cupid's day. That feels like a total lack of respect for a team on a winning streak.
But if we are being honest with ourselves, we can't really argue with it yet. The Cats have struggled on the road recently and relied on massive second-half comebacks to pull out wins. You cannot spot this Florida team a big lead in the O-Dome and expect to survive too often.
The experts are out on Kentucky too
It isn't just Vegas. The analytical models absolutely hate us in this matchup.
- Haslametrics: Florida 79, Kentucky 68
- KenPom: Gives Florida an 83% chance to win
- Bart Torvik: Gives Florida a massive 90% chance to win
And the humans? Not much better. Over at CBS Sports, guys like Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, and David Cobb all picked us to cover the spread, but literally nobody picked the Cats to win outright.
My prediction: Can we pull it off?
Looking at the stats gives me a pit in my stomach. The Cats' path to victory is incredibly narrow today: They have to force turnovers, hit a barrage of threes, force Florida into outside jumpers, and somehow rebound as well as we have all year.
Can it be done? Absolutely.
Will it? That is the million-dollar question.
I think Florida’s bigs are just more consistently better from top to bottom. While Malachi Moreno has been pretty steady, you never really know what you are going to get out of Brandon Garrison on a given night. Mo Dioubate is going to have to be a massive problem on the boards for the Gators and lock down Rueben Chinyelu. Essentially, the Cats have to play out of their minds to keep the Gators off the glass.
Because of that consistency down low, I think the Gators have the edge.
Florida 81, Kentucky 74.
But I will say this: I really think this Kentucky team is done taking blowout losses. If we go down today, we are going down swinging, I hope.