If you strictly look at the stat sheet, tonight's matchup between Kentucky and Oklahoma looks like a dead heat.
Both teams score in bunches (UK averages 81.4 ppg; OU averages 82.8). Both teams take care of the basketball (both rank inside the top 55 nationally in turnovers per game). Both teams rebound at nearly an identical clip.
But stats don't measure the one thing that actually matters in February: The ability to close.
A tale of two finishes
The defining story of this game isn't about offense or defense, it's about "winning time." Kentucky enters this game having won 6 of its last 7 games, often by executing perfectly in the final four minutes. They have found a way to grind out possessions, get to the line, and get stops when the game is in the balance. They have hit game-winners, come back from massive deficits, and they have done it against good teams.
Oklahoma is living the opposite reality. Despite their high-octane offense, the Sooners have been the "almost" team of the SEC. Their conference record is ugly, but the tape shows a team that loses heartbreakers. They are in almost every game, but when the pressure mounts, the shots stop falling, and the turnovers creep in.
They are dangerous, but they are fragile.
The shootout factor
Make no mistake: Oklahoma is coming to Rupp Arena to let it fly. The Sooners rank 36th nationally in three-point attempts, launching nearly 28 deep balls per game. Their guard duo of Xzayvier Brown (17.4 ppg in SEC play) and Nijel Pack (16.2 ppg) can light up a scoreboard in a hurry.
We need to avoid the typical struggling team that comes into Rupp and can't miss. Because if that happens, this team can drop 100+ in a hurry.
Kentucky's counter? The hottest backcourt in the league. Denzel Aberdeen has been playing at a different level in SEC games, coming up with 13 points on 42% from deep. While Otega Oweh is on a heater of his own, averaging just over 20 points per game in conference play.
The difference is efficiency. Kentucky’s effective field goal percentage (53.7%) is just a tick steadier than what Oklahoma allows, and Kentucky's second-half defense (ranked 18th nationally) suggests that Mark Pope makes the better halftime adjustments.
The question is the start. Will the team that showed up against Vandy or the team that showed up against Arkansas show up tonight? Mark Pope made adjustments to their pregame routine. Will it be enough?
Oklahoma vs Kentucky prediction
I made the mistake of betting against the Cats in Fayetteville. I looked at the Vandy game and just thought Arkansas would be too much. I figured this team would break; little did I know they'd be unbreakable. I won't make that mistake twice, especially not at Rupp Arena.
Oklahoma is desperate, and desperate teams usually punch hard early. Expect the Sooners to hang around and maybe even lead at halftime thanks to their three-point shooting.
But in the final 10 minutes, the trend will hold. Rupp Arena will get loud, Otega Oweh will make a winning play against his former team, and Kentucky will do what they have done for a month: Close the door.
Score Prediction: Kentucky 85, Oklahoma 76.