We are officially on the clock. Kentucky and Tennessee will tip off in Rupp Arena a little more than 12 hours from now, and the vibe is electric. The denim uniforms are ready. The 1996 team is in town. mostly. The crowd is going to be deafening.
But if you are looking for a clear favorite, you won't find one. Vegas is predicting a straight-up street fight.
The odds for Kentucky vs Tennessee
Fanduel has the line set at Kentucky -1.5.
Usually, Vegas builds in a standard 3-point buffer for the home team. The fact that this line is sitting at 1.5 tells you everything you need to know: On a neutral court, they might actually favor the Vols. They view this game as a complete toss-up, even though Kentucky won this game in Knoxville less than a month ago.
- Spread: Kentucky -1.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky -110 | Tennessee -110
- Total: 147.5
ESPN matchup predictor
The analytics are just slightly more optimistic than the bookmakers. ESPN gives the Wildcats a 56% chance to secure the home victory. Again, basically a coin flip.
What the experts are saying about Kentucky basketball's showdown with the Vols
The media is just as divided as the oddsmakers. Here is a look at how the predictions are shaking out across the landscape.
The KSR Crew
The KSR staff is mostly riding the wave of momentum, but there are a few notable dissenters.
- Tyler Thompson (Kentucky 74-72): She wants to see if Kentucky can shed its "Jekyll and Hyde" tendencies. If the core three (Oweh, Aberdeen, Chandler) outshine Tennessee’s stars, the Cats complete the sweep.
- Jack Pilgrim (Kentucky 83-81): He is trusting the growth. Pilgrim thinks the "momentum feels real" and sees Denzel Aberdeen going into takeover mode again.
- Zack Geoghegan (Kentucky 81-78): He believes the atmosphere will be the difference. He is calling for another 20-point outing from Otega Oweh and a huge shooting night from Collin Chandler.
- Jacob Polacheck (Kentucky 81-75): Even without Quaintance and Lowe, he thinks the consistency of the healthy group gets it done.
- Adam Luckett (Tennessee 78-76): The skeptic, as usual. Luckett points out that Tennessee is the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country. He doesn't think Kentucky can rely on turnovers to bail them out again, but Tennessee had just 12 last game, so not sure it was entirely the reason in the first place.
- Nick Roush (Tennessee 82-72): The pessimist, and it really feels like he tries to go contrarian just to do so at times. Roush calls this team "The Unpredictables" and fears that just when everyone buys in, they are due for a letdown.
National voices
- Thomas Casale (CBS Sports): He warns that free-throw shooting could be the deciding factor in a close game (both teams shot under 70% in the last meeting). He leans Kentucky -1.5 but admits it could go either way.
- Haslem metrics has Kentucky winning by a single point.
- EvanMiya has the Cats winning by two.
- KenPom has the Cats winning as well.
- Bart Torvik has the Vols ruining the 90's party Kentucky is trying to throw.
My prediction
I have spent a lot of time looking at the box score from the first matchup in Knoxville, asking myself one question: What is most likely to repeat itself?
The rebounding
Kentucky was outrebounded by 7 in the first game. Will that continue here? Probably.
Tennessee is an elite rebounding team, and Kentucky isn't always invested on the glass. With Jayden Quaintance out, the Cats lack that massive presence down low. Even if Tennessee center Felix Okpara is limited or out, the Vols still win the rebounding battle.
The shooting and turnovers
In Knoxville, Kentucky, shot 46% from three. That is an elite number. Coincidentally, that is the exact same percentage they shot in the win against Arkansas. Can they hit nearly half their threes again? Probably not. Neither team turned it over a ton in game one, and I don't expect them to here either.
The X-factors
Kentucky had 6 blocks in Game 1, including the game-winner. Tennessee likes to take a lot of two-point shots, so if Kentucky can challenge them at the rim, it could be a massive boon for the defense. I think they can do it.
Nate Ament is a problem, but if Kentucky can force him to be the only option and contain everyone else, they win this game.
The crowd will be loud, the players will be juiced. I don't think Kentucky can afford to lose this game and drop the momentum.
So they won't.
Score Prediction: Kentucky 75, Tennessee 67
How to watch Tennessee vs Kentucky
- Tip time: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN (Dish Channel 140, DirecTV 206)
- Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes
- Streaming: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FuboTV, Sling TV
- Radio: UKAthletics.com or on iHeartRadio via WLAP 630.
- Local FM/AM Stations:
- Lexington: 98.1 FM / 630 WLAP
- Louisville: 840 AM WHAS
- London: 103.9 FM WWEL
- Hazard/Pikeville: 101.1 WSGS
- Madisonville: 93.9 FM WKTG