EvanMiya.com has released fresh data analyzing Kentucky basketball’s on-off splits, and the findings are turning heads across Big Blue Nation. This in-depth look at each player's impact—on both offense and defense—reveals surprising insights into the Wildcats’ best and worst lineups. Let’s break it all down.
Player-by-Player Analysis
- Amari Williams On-Off Margin Splits: +17.8 Possession Percentage: 53% Amari Williams tops the charts as Kentucky’s most impactful player. His contributions on both ends of the court (Offense +8.3, Defense +9.5) make him a reliable asset in any lineup.
- Lamont Butler On-Off Margin Splits: +16.6 Possession Percentage: 61% Butler shines as an all-around force. His defensive presence (+11.5) is unmatched, and he pairs it with a solid offensive impact (+5.1).
- Andrew Carr On-Off Margin Splits: +16.4 Possession Percentage: 61% With Carr on the floor, Kentucky gets a balanced boost. His offensive (+6.4) and defensive (+10.0) contributions have been critical to keeping the Wildcats competitive.
- Jaxson Robinson On-Off Margin Splits: +7.8 Possession Percentage: 72% As one of the team’s most utilized players, Robinson is a solid performer. While not as dominant as others, his consistency helps stabilize the team.
- Otega Oweh On-Off Margin Splits: -2.2 Possession Percentage: 68% Oweh's numbers shows struggles defensively (-4.3), but he adds value on offense (+2.0).
- Kerr Kriisa On-Off Margin Splits: -10.9 Possession Percentage: 21% Kriisa’s offensive output (-14.2) has been a weak point, though he contributes modestly on defense (+3.4).
- Ansley Almonor On-Off Margin Splits: -12.3 Possession Percentage: 34% Almonor faces challenges on both ends of the floor, with negative splits in offense (-8.1) and defense (-4.2).
- Koby Brea On-Off Margin Splits: -16.1 Possession Percentage: 58% Brea’s defensive struggles (-15.4) are a significant factor in his negative impact.
- Collin Chandler On-Off Margin Splits: -18.8 Possession Percentage: 13% Chandler’s limited court time (13% possessions) hasn’t been effective, with a concerning -16.1 on offense.
- Brandon Garrison On-Off Margin Splits: -20.3 Possession Percentage: 41% Garrison has struggled mightily on both sides, especially defensively (-11.9).
- Travis Perry On-Off Margin Splits: -24.8 Possession Percentage: 12% Perry's numbers are the lowest, with defensive splits (-26.5) highlighting his difficulties.
- Trent Noah has not qualified based on minutes played in enough games.
Best Lineup: Kentucky’s Fab Five
Based on the top on-off margin splits, the best five-player lineup for Kentucky would be:
- Amari Williams
- Lamont Butler
- Andrew Carr
- Jaxson Robinson
- Otega Oweh
This group provides a balanced mix of offensive firepower and defensive reliability. Seems about right when watching the games. Maybe Brea over Robinson at times.
Worst Lineup: Room for Improvement
The least effective lineup, considering on-off margin splits, includes:
- Koby Brea
- Collin Chandler
- Brandon Garrison
- Travis Perry
- Otega Oweh
These players have struggled to generate positive momentum when on the court, this small lineup would not work.
Best Offensive Lineup
For an all-out offensive approach, the ideal lineup would feature:
- Amari Williams (+8.3 Offense)
- Andrew Carr (+6.4 Offense)
- Lamont Butler (+5.1 Offense)
- Jaxson Robinson (+2.8 Offense)
- Otega Oweh (+2.0 Offense)
See a pattern there?
Worst Offensive Lineup
On the flip side, the worst offensive performers make up this lineup:
- Kerr Kriisa (-14.2 Offense)
- Collin Chandler (-16.1 Offense)
- Ansley Almonor (-8.1 Offense)
- Brandon Garrison (-8.4 Offense)
- Koby Brea (-0.7 Offense)
Shocking to see Brea on this list.
I finally added a dedicated On-Off Splits page at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax for each team!
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 27, 2025
The On-Off Splits tell you how much better the team plays when a player is on the court vs on the bench, per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength.
Here's Kentucky's splits: pic.twitter.com/SGPINN6MVR
Fan Takeaway
EvanMiya’s data offers an eye-opening glimpse into the strengths and weaknesses of Kentucky’s roster. While players like Amari Williams and Lamont Butler continue to shine, others have room to grow. As the season goes on, these numbers will change. Especially with injuries to Carr and Kriisa.
Big Blue Nation, what do you think? Are these numbers surprising? Let us know which lineup you think can carry the Cats to glory!
Keep the conversation going!
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