Kentucky just went from ‘leader’ to ‘long shot’ for another top recruit

Kentucky fans barely had time to process the Tyran Stokes update before the next recruiting gut punch landed.

First it was the No. 1 player in the class suddenly looking less like a “done deal” and more like a long shot. Now five-star power forward Christian Collins, once viewed as a strong Kentucky lock, is drifting too. Travis Branham quietly pulled his crystal ball pick for Kentucky, which in 2025 recruiting language might as well be a siren and flashing red light.

It’s not just “recruiting happens” stuff. People around the sport are saying the quiet part out loud: the hang-up is NIL.

How NIL frustration and a whiffed portal cycle pushed Kentucky basketball out front and then out of the picture

College basketball insider Trilly Donovan believes there was a "back and forth" on the contract. There have been rumors that have hinted that the conversations with top 2026 kids all start the same way with the Cats. There is glowing interest in Kentucky, respect for Mark Pope, excitement about Rupp, and then everything changes when the NIL numbers hit the table. The talent still loves the brand; the families aren’t loving the offers, neither are the agents.

This is where the “good, if they don’t want to be here, let them go” crowd misses the point.

You can’t whiff on both fronts. If you’re going to slow-play high school recruiting and live in the portal, you have to absolutely nail the portal. And this past cycle? The evaluation and roster fit out of the portal have been, at best, uneven. At worst, they’ve been flat-out poor for the price tag.

Boosters are not going to run back a $20 million roulette spin on a brand-new portal roster every year. That’s not sustainable anywhere, and especially not when you’re not winning at a level that justifies it. You need high school recruiting to be at least functional so you’re not rebuilding from scratch every March.

Right now, “functional” is not how anyone would describe Kentucky’s 2026 board. No commitments. Crystal balls evaporating. Quiet whispers that the class might end completely empty. And yes, the 2025 haul is absurd — Koa Peat, Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson and friends is the kind of group that can win March games fort their teams on sheer talent. But that doesn’t erase the problem behind it.

You still need a pipeline of young players in the program, even if they’re not all top-10 guys. Role players who grow into starters. Three- and four-stars who stay longer than nine months. People you can actually develop instead of constantly renting.

Maybe Braydon Hawthorne redshirts and becomes part of that “young core” on a longer clock, assuming he sticks around in an era where redshirt often feels like code for “I’ll see you in the portal.” That helps a little. It doesn’t solve the larger issue of going from leading for two top-10 players to staring down the barrel of a goose egg.

For a fanbase that was dreaming of a 2026 class built around Stokes and Collins, this feels like whiplash. And the worst part is, it doesn’t feel like basketball is the problem.

It feels like money is.