If you were hoping that the computers, or even our own local media, would be kind to Kentucky after the Vanderbilt disaster, look away now.
The Cats knew going into Bud Walton Arena to face John Calipari was going to be tough. They knew the "White Out" would be intense. But I didn't expect the consensus to be this overwhelming.
I’ve combed through the analytics models and the expert picks for Saturday night, and the message is clear: Prepare for pain.
The computers hate us
The predictive models don't care about "heart" or "narratives." They care about efficiency, and right now, they see a massive mismatch.
- BartTorvik is the harshest, projecting an 86–77 loss for Kentucky. When the analytics say you are going to give up 86 points, that is a red flag for a defense that just got bullied by Vandy.
- KenPom isn't much friendlier, predicting an 84–77 Arkansas win.
- EvanMiya sees a similar result: 84–79 Arkansas.
- Haslametrics has it 82–75 Arkansas.
- ESPN BPI gives the Razorbacks a 60.9% chance to win.
The data is screaming the same thing: Arkansas is going to score into the mid-80s, and Kentucky doesn't have the firepower to keep up.
KSR is (mostly) bailing
Usually, you can count on the local media to wear blue-tinted glasses. Not this time. The crew at Kentucky Sports Radio is almost entirely out on this team for Saturday.
- Tyler Thompson: Arkansas 83, Kentucky 72
- Drew Franklin: Arkansas 80, Kentucky 72
- Jack Pilgrim: Arkansas 87, Kentucky 73
- Zack Geoghegan: Arkansas 85, Kentucky 78
- Adam Luckett: Arkansas 81, Kentucky 79
They are predicting losses ranging from a 2-point heartbreaker to a 14-point blowout.
But there is one brave soul standing alone on the island.
Nick Roush is the only one picking the Cats, predicting a wild 88–86 Kentucky victory. I don't know if Nick knows something we don't, or if he just refuses to let Calipari have the satisfaction, but I respect the optimism. Keep the faith.
The mismatch is in the numbers
Why is everyone so down on the Cats? It’s not just the Vandy loss; it’s the matchup. Arkansas has the #9 scoring offense in the country (89.3 PPG), while Kentucky sits at #60. Even worse, Arkansas takes care of the ball. They rank #7 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.823).
Kentucky’s path to victory usually relies on forcing chaos and hitting threes. But Arkansas shoots it better from deep (37.9%, ranked #24) than we do (33.9%, ranked #185). On paper, they are more efficient, they shoot better, and they are at home.
WBN prediction
I want to be like Nick Roush. I want to believe that Mark Pope has a trick up his sleeve and that the team will rally around the "disrespect." But I can't get the image of Tuesday night out of my head.
Kentucky is walking into a hostile environment with no point guard, no rim protector, and a roster that just showed us they can be bullied.
Calipari isn't just trying to win; he's trying to make a statement again. I think the offense keeps it close for a half, but the "White Out" energy in Bud Walton and the lack of depth eventually breaks the dam with the Razorbacks cruising in the last 10 minutes.
Prediction: Arkansas 85, Kentucky 72