The Cats are going dancing, there is no doubt about that. How long they keep their dancing shoes on is very much up for debate. Things just got a lot harder with the latest Bracketology update after Kentucky dropped its third straight game to the Florida Gators.
The 7-seed nightmare
Despite Mark Pope’s belief that his team can make a deep run, the bracket is an unforgiving mistress. ESPN's Joe Lunardi now has Kentucky as a 7-seed heading into Selection Sunday eve.
That projection places them in a first-round matchup with 10-seed Santa Clara. The Broncos play a balanced style of basketball that has traditionally given Kentucky’s perimeter defense fits.
Even if the Cats manage to navigate that successfully, waiting for them in the Round of 32 would be 2-seed Iowa State. The Cyclones are a defensive buzzsaw, giving up just 64.6 PPG (No. 5 nationally). For a Kentucky team that already struggles to hit open looks, that is the definition of a nightmare matchup.
Around the matrix
The consensus across the board isn't much friendlier. CBS Sports and Blogging the Bracket both have the Cats as a 7-seed, with potential matchups against NC State and a brutal second-round date with either Michigan State or Illinois.
Michigan State already throttled the Cats once; I would prefer not to see another one of those, thank you very much.
- Bracket Matrix: Firmly at a 7-seed average.
- TeamRankings: Currently the most pessimistic, sliding the Cats all the way to a 9-seed.
The NCAA Tournament is filled with potholes
The fact is, none of the paths are going to be easy. By failing to secure a win over the Gators, Kentucky has lost control of its own destiny.
They’ve made their bed by letting the Florida sweep happen; now Mark Pope and company have to lie in it. If the Cats want to avoid a short stay in the Big Dance, they’ll need to find the "elite" defensive gear they showed in flashes against the Gators and hope their shooters finally find the bottom of the net.
Selection Sunday is tomorrow and the Cats won't have to wonder much longer.