Man, I got to be honest, I thought the Cats were safe.
Kentucky looked to be cruising to a comfortable NCAA Tournament berth after a pretty shaky start to the season turned into a hot streak. But after a second Quad 2 home loss, this time to a Georgia team that was on a losing streak, things feel very different today. Now it stands on shaky ground again, looking at a schedule that is less than kind.
This team could very easily find itself losing three or four in a row if they fail to show up for Auburn on Saturday. That kind of streak near the end of the season could be disastrous. Just look at what is left:
- @ Auburn (Feb 21)
- @ South Carolina (Feb 24)
- vs #19 Vanderbilt (Feb 28)
- @ Texas A&M (Mar 3)
- vs #12 Florida (Mar 7)
South Carolina on the road is always a tough game for the Cats; playing on the Plains is never fun. Hosting Vandy and Florida, and going to Texas A&M? There could be some losses there.
The resume vs. the bubble
Here is the good news: despite the doom and gloom, Kentucky’s resume is actually holding up better than it feels. Neil Paine over at ESPN noted that while Kentucky's odds have dipped to 94%, they are still in a relatively strong position because of who the Cats were able to beat.
"The Wildcats had moved into 'lock' territory... but then a pair of losses to Florida and, on Tuesday, Georgia at home, followed," Paine wrote. "Their résumé (five Quadrant 1 wins...) is also still around sixth-best in the SEC... So they're comfortably above the danger zone for now."
That for now is what is dangerous to the program.
Let’s compare Kentucky to the other teams sweating it out on the bubble near them. You have Wisconsin sitting at 18-8, but they only have 3 Quad 1 wins. UCLA is 17-9, but they only have 2. Ohio State is 17-9, and they have a big fat ZERO in the Quad 1 win column.
Kentucky has 5 Quad 1 wins.
That is the key difference right there. The only team close to Kentucky in the NET that is also bubble watching is Texas (16-9. They also have 5 Quad 1 wins, but Kentucky's overall resume still ranks higher, for now. There is that phrase again.
Those big wins against Tennessee and others are acting as a massive buffer right now.
Lose two of the next five, and things could get dicey depending on how the other conference tournaments play out. But there is also the good news that these upcoming games can positively impact the Cats, too. Win 4 of the next 5, and you finish with momentum and feel good going to Nashville, where things have been ugly so far this season. In 2 games played in Nashville, Kentucky, is -60 so far. That's not too hot. But there is also more good news for the Cats.
The season sets up so that it all is left to play for. It just depends on which team shows up.