Kentucky is back in Bridgestone Arena, and for BBN, that comes with a shiver down the spine. The last time the Cats stepped onto this floor, they suffered a 35-point beatdown against Gonzaga that was never close. The Cats were horrific from the field, shooting a freezing 16-of-60. You aren't beating anyone shooting 16-of-60.
Now, though, Kentucky is playing for its tournament life. Mark Pope's mission is to win the whole thing, but to do that, you gotta win the first one first.
Kam Williams is out of the boot and into a probable status
The health of Kam Williams. After breaking his foot on January 21st, Williams is officially probable to suit up against the Tigers. While his minutes may be limited, there is no question that he can offer a huge lift for a team that Mark Pope says is struggling with fatigue.
Kentucky has to maintain the rebounding gap
While LSU is ranked #48 in scoring, its defense is one of the worst in the country, giving up nearly 80 points a night. Their biggest weakness? They are allergic to defensive rebounding, ranking #307 in the country. This is where Kentucky, ranked #43 in offensive rebounding, should end the game.
If Malachi Moreno and Mouhamed Dioubate dominate the second-chance points, LSU simply won't have enough possessions to keep up.
But keep in mind it was actually LSU that won the rebounding battle in the first matchup.
LSU will foul you out
LSU lives and dies at the free-throw line, where they rank #20 in the country in makes per game. They want to turn this into a slow, plodding snorefest and then make shots late in the clock. Kentucky, meanwhile, thrives in the second half, where they are the #11 scoring team in the country (averaging 45 points after the break). But it's those pesky 1st halves that keep showing up problematic.
The formula for victory is actually pretty simple: survive the first 10 minutes of Bridgestone's "rim ghosts" and make some shots, keep the game at a high pace, and let the second-half depth of Collin Chandler and Otega Oweh wear the Tigers down.
Without a consistent floor general, LSU is a desperate team playing for its life, but they are down bad with only 3 SEC wins all year long. But in a tournament setting, it only takes one hot night to ruin your dreams.
If Kentucky shoots even 40% from the field, a low bar compared to their 26% disaster against Gonzaga, the talent gap will just be too much for LSU to bridge.
Prediction: Kentucky 80, LSU 70
Game day essentials and how to catch the Cats live
Tip: 12:30 PM ET (Wednesday, March 11th)
Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Roy Philpott, Jon Crispin
FanDuel odds: Kentucky -7.5 | Over/Under: 151.5
Streaming: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FuboTV, Sling TV (Blue & Orange Plan)
Radio options:
Online: Stream live at UKAthletics.com or on iHeartRadio via WLAP 630.
Local FM/AM Stations:
Lexington: 98.1 FM / 630 WLAP
Louisville: 840 AM WHAS
London: 103.9 FM WWEL
Hazard/Pikeville: 101.1 WSGS
Madisonville: 93.9 FM WKTG