As BBN waits for the 6:00 p.m. ET bracket reveal, a look back at the last five games shows a Kentucky basketball team capable of elite defense but also one that is haunted by rebounding and shooting woes.
Kentucky basketball memory lane audit
Strength: The Otega Oweh floor
If there is one thing you can count on, it’s that Otega Oweh is going to find his points. It may take a lot of shots to get there, but he is good for 10-15 a night.
A key example came on Friday in the Florida game. Oweh shot a terrible 5-of-18, but he still clawed his way to 10 points and 5 rebounds.
In the four games prior, he was a force of nature, including a massive 24-point, 9-rebound effort against Texas A&M and 21 points against Missouri. When Oweh is attacking the rim and getting to the line (shooting 9-of-12 FTs against A&M), Kentucky looks like a team capable of beating anyone.
He just has to hang on to the ball. Oweh has averaged about two turnovers per game all season, that is too many for a guy who handles the ball a lot in crucial situations.
Weakness: The glass is breaking
The most glaring red flag heading into March is the rebounding margin and how this team plays on the glass. Look at the discrepancy in the two Florida games that were less than a week apart:
- Regular Season: Florida 41, Kentucky 40 (A dogfight).
- SEC Tournament: Florida 50, Kentucky 29 (A disaster).
Now, this was their 3rd game in 3 days, but Ole Miss went all the way to OT on their 4th in 4 days. I don't buy into the exhaustion excuse. These guys are better than allowing Florida to just dominate the glass.
When anyone gets out-rebounded by 21, it's almost impossible to win. For this Kentucky team, they simply aren't talented enough offensively to overcome the lack of possessions. Malachi Moreno and Brandon Garrison have to find a way to anchor the paint, or the Cats will be a "one-and-done" casualty.
Betting on Brandon Garrison is a dangerous proposition. He could go for 17 and 5 or 0 and 1; you just never know.
Strength: Defensively improving
Earlier this season, the Cats were not very good at switching or talking on the defensive end of the court. That still shows up at times, but nowhere near as frequently as it did back then. The Cats held Florida to 71, a day after holding Missouri to 72.
If the Cats can find that mentality over 40 minutes, they can be elite defensively.
Weakness: The 3-Point "Cold Snaps"
This Kentucky team was cold to start the year, went on a heater through the middle part of the SEC and then crashed back down to earth.
- Vs. Texas A&M: 31%
- Vs. LSU: 27%
- Vs. Missouri: 29%
- Vs. Florida (regular season): 35% (SECT): 22%
Kentucky hasn't cleared the 36% mark in its last five outings, and under 30 in 3 of those. In a single-elimination tournament, a 5-of-23 performance (like the one against Florida) is an automatic plane ride home. The Cats will need to rediscover their touch from deep to help open up the paint.
Kentucky has to find its rhythm
Kentucky is a "rhythm" team. When they share the ball and defend the first shot, they can beat anyone in the country, as long as they rebound. But when they stop moving the ball and start playing me ball, they can lose to nearly anyone in the country as well.
The bracket is unforgiving, and at 6:00 p.m. tonight, we find out just how hard the path will be.