Kentucky and Georgia are locking horns tonight in a game that will have massive impacts on the SEC standings.
Win, and Kentucky keeps pace with the tight bunch of teams sitting on four conference losses. Lose, and Georgia suddenly creeps right back into play for a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament.
So, what do the experts think will happen?
The odds and predictions all favor Kentucky
Vegas is feeling incredibly confident in the Wildcats tonight. FanDuel currently has Kentucky favored by 6.5 points, with an over/under set at 161.5 total points. What is interesting about that is the line opened at 8.5 points for Kentucky and 163.5. So, they have dropped 2 points from Kentucky all around.
The advanced analytical models are also in agreement that Kentucky will be the winner. EvanMiya currently gives UK a 69.6% chance of winning, projecting an 85-79 final score.
The rest of the algorithms across the internet are universally backing the Cats as well:
- KenPom: 72% chance to win (Projected Score: 85-78)
- ESPN Matchup Predictor: 75.1% chance to win
- BartTorvik: 70% chance to win
- DRatings: 69.6% chance to win (Projected Score: 87-81)
- Haslametrics: Projected Score: 84-76
Kentucky basketball better listen to Mark Pope's warning
While the computers are predicting a comfortable victory, Mark Pope is well aware of exactly how dangerous this Mike White team can be.
When asked about the Bulldogs on his radio show last night, Pope offered a stark warning to Big Blue Nation.
“They can put out a massive frontline when they want to. They can play four guards. They really, really shoot it when they want to," Pope explained. "They’re one of the top three-point attempt teams in our league. They play faster than anybody in the league... They’re a good team. They’ve had huge wins, and we expect a handful from them tomorrow night.”
Last year, it was Georgia who took care of Kentucky down in Athens by a final score of 82-69. If the Cats do not defend the three-point line significantly better than they did against Florida, we could be looking at a devastating repeat performance tonight inside Rupp Arena.
If I am being completely honest, I was not encouraged by what I saw in the loss to Florida. I know some of you were.
I see some very real issues defensively with a Kentucky team that simply shouldn't have very many, especially given the fact that offensive shooting was supposedly sacrificed to build a better defensive roster.
I think Georgia plays a fast-paced, high-volume style that can really hurt Kentucky's on-and-off-again effort. If Kentucky comes out slow again, this could get incredibly ugly if Georgia is hot.
Ultimately, I do not think that happens at home, though. I believe the Cats figure it out and get a desperately needed win, but I do not think it will be anywhere near as easy as some of the computer models believe it will be.
Prediction: Kentucky 82, Georgia 77