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How the NCAA selection committee ranks teams & where Kentucky stands

March Madness is upon us and to get a better idea of how the committee ranks teams, we take a look at what they use and where Kentucky stands.
ByDrew Holbrook|
Mar 4, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Trent Noah (9) passes the ball to guard Travis Perry (11) during the first half against the LSU Tigers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Mar 4, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Trent Noah (9) passes the ball to guard Travis Perry (11) during the first half against the LSU Tigers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

As Selection Sunday approaches, college basketball fans eagerly await the unveiling of the NCAA Tournament bracket. But how does the selection committee decide which teams make the cut? The process involves a deep dive into advanced analytics, including metrics such as Wins Above Bubble (WAB), KenPom, Strength of Record (SOR), T-Rank, and the NET rankings. Let’s break down these key metrics and see where Kentucky stands in the race for a favorable NCAA Tournament seed.

Key Metrics Used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

WAB is one of the most crucial metrics in evaluating a team’s resume. It measures how many more (or fewer) wins a team has compared to what a hypothetical ‘bubble team’ would achieve against the same schedule. Here’s how WAB is calculated:

  • The NET rankings determine the strength of a team's schedule.
  • The expected wins for a bubble team against each opponent are calculated.
  • The team's actual wins are compared to the expected wins.
  • The total Wins Above Bubble is the sum of the differences.

Currently, Kentucky ranks 9th in WAB with a score of 4.66, which indicates they have performed better than a typical bubble team would against their schedule.

KenPom focuses on predictive analytics rather than resume evaluation. It assesses a team’s efficiency on both offense and defense using advanced tempo-free metrics. The key components include:

  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjOE): Points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality.
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjDE): Points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality.
  • Tempo: The number of possessions per game.

Kentucky currently boasts a strong AdjOE (125.6, 8th nationally) but struggles defensively (AdjDE 100.6, ranked 63rd), which may impact their seeding.

T-Rank, developed by Bart Torvik, places more emphasis on recent results and aims to remove ‘garbage time’ from evaluations. Key factors include:

  • The average scoring margin throughout the game.
  • More weight given to recent performances.
  • Underdog teams receive extra credit for close wins, while favorites are penalized for close losses.

Kentucky currently sits 18th.

Strength of Record evaluates a team’s overall performance based on its wins and schedule difficulty. It answers the question: “How difficult would it be for an average Top-25 team to achieve this record?” Kentucky’s 20-10 record, combined with their difficult SEC schedule, strengthens their case for a solid seed and a rank of 3rd.

With a WAB ranking of 9th, Kentucky has built a strong resume, even if their defensive efficiency lags behind. Their KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (8th overall) and their T-Rank improvement make them a team with upside heading into March.

However, the final stretch of the season and the SEC Tournament will be crucial to wrap up a 3 seed.