How Kentucky beats Duke in the Champions Classic

The Cats head to Atlanta, Georgia, this Tuesday night to face the Duke Blue Devils in the 14th annual Champions Classic. That’s more than enough reason to get excited. But how can Kentucky come out on top? Let’s break it down:

1. The Three Ball

In their two wins this season, Duke has shot 42% from three, making 28 of 67 attempts, while holding opponents to just 26% (11 of 43).

In its two victories, Kentucky has shot 40% from deep (24 of 60) and limited opponents to 28% (17 of 60). These are fairly even numbers, but Kentucky’s opponents have attempted more and made slightly more.

Key
Kentucky needs to run Duke off the three-point line and hit at least 15 threes.

2. Khaman Maluach vs Amari Williams

The 7'2" freshman Khaman Maluach may struggle guarding Duke’s Amari Williams on the perimeter but could be effective in the paint against Brandon Garrison. Expect Williams to get more minutes at the 5 when Maluach is on the court.

Maluach is currently averaging 1.5 blocks, 10 rebounds, and 8 points in 20 minutes per game. Williams is putting up 12 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 assists in the same time frame.

If Williams can draw Maluach out of the paint and drive by him, Duke’s defense will be stretched, making it harder to cover Kentucky’s shooters.

Key
Williams needs to out-rebound and out-score Maluach, keep him out of the paint and reduce his turnovers.

3. Ball Movement

Duke averages 18 assists per game, while Kentucky is distributing 26 assists per game. This movement leads to open shots, and with Kentucky’s shooting talent, that usually means made baskets. Duke will be working hard to close out on Kentucky’s shooters so that effective ball movement will be key.


Key
25+ assists and less than 10 turnovers

4. Pace

Kentucky averages 78 possessions per game, compared to Duke’s 74. It’s a small difference, but Kentucky ranks 50th in tempo compared to Duke’s 150th.

Those extra possessions could make a difference if Kentucky can push the tempo. Kentucky also has depth on its side. With no players logging over 25 minutes a game and 10 logging over 13 minutes a game, the Cats go deeper into their bench. Duke’s rotation is shorter, with 8 averaging over 18 minutes and no other play over 10. So, Kentucky could force them to dip deeper into their bench.

Key
Kentucky needs 80 possessions this game to force Duke to play at their speed.

5. Free Throws

Kentucky commits a defensive foul on 15% of possessions, while Duke fouls on 19%. This means Duke should foul Kentucky once for every five possessions Kentucky has. If Kentucky can generate more possessions (mentioned above), it will put Duke players in foul trouble (they don't play a deep bench). To capitalize on this advantage, Kentucky has to hit its free throws.

Key
Kentucky needs to take at least 22 Free Throws and make 19 of them.

Catch the action on ESPN following the Kansas vs. Michigan State game. The tip is scheduled for approximately 9 p.m.