Kentucky basketball fans have yet another reason to be optimistic as ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects the Wildcats to finish the season strong. Currently ranked 11th in BPI with a score of 17.5, Kentucky is positioned as a legitimate contender in the college basketball landscape. But does this team have what it takes to make a deep tournament run, and what is BPI?
Kentucky's tournament chances via ESPN BPI pic.twitter.com/kp59aJ75Ky
— Rare Rookies #BBN (@rarerookies) December 13, 2024
The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a statistical tool that measures how strong a team is by comparing its performance to that of an average team in its place. It considers various things examples include; how efficiently the team plays in each game, difficulty of schedule, the pace they play, rest days, game locations, and more. Essentially, BPI uses current data to predict how well a team is likely to perform moving forward in their season. A higher BPI number means the team is considered stronger.
The ten teams with higher title chances than Kentucky currently:
- Houston
- Auburn
- Tennessee
- Duke
- Gonzaga
- Iowa State
- Alabama
- Baylor
- Kansas
- UCONN
According to BPI, Kentucky is projected to finish the regular season with a 22.2-8.8, or anywhere from 21 to 23 wins and 7 to 9 losses overall and a 10.7-7.3 mark in SEC play. Despite the team’s solid numbers, the Wildcats face a challenging road ahead. Kentucky has the toughest remaining strength of schedule, making every game critical.
Offensively, Kentucky boasts a BPI offense rating of 10.2, which is top 10 in the country.. This showcases their ability to score efficiently something Pope is adamant about. Defensively, they’re rated at 7.3, top 30, suggesting a balanced team capable of competing on both ends of the court but leans heavily towards the offensive end. However, the Wildcats’ projected chances to win the SEC outright stand at just 6.4%, indicating a crowded race in the conference which is shaping up to the best ever.
Average SOR Among Major Conferences (via ESPN BPI) as of December 10
— Hudson Ross (@hudsontakes_) December 10, 2024
1. SEC (25.81)
2. Big Ten (58.66)
3. Big 12 (62.62)
4. Big East (85.81)
5. ACC (101.16)
(SOR is strength of record)
In terms of NCAA Tournament projections, Kentucky is sitting in a promising position. They have an 87% chance to reach the Round of 32, a 52% chance to make the Sweet 16, and a 27% chance to advance to the Elite Eight. While their Final Four chances sit at 12%, Kentucky’s title odds are measured at 2%. These odds rank 11th-best in the nation, highlighting the team’s potential to surprise when March Madness begins.
With the leadership of Mark Pope and standout players like Koby Brea, Kentucky has the talent to outperform expectations with a totally new roster. However, navigating the SEC gauntlet and living up to tournament projections will test this team all season long.