Florida expert says Kentucky has Billy Napier’s number

Kentucky football heads into Gainesville, Florida this Saturday to take on the Florida Gators in the Swamp at night. Each team is eyeing the other as a potential opportunity to get things back on track and secure an SEC win. I spoke with Fansided's Florida expert about this matchup and his prediction of the game.

Are Florida fans coming into this game hopeful? And what will the gameday atmosphere be like with the turbulent season that the Gators have had? 

Coming into the season, every piece of literature written about the Gators invoked how hard their schedule is. But even in predictions that implied Florida could go 4-8, still had Kentucky as one of the four wins.

So, even with Florida getting blown out by Miami and Texas A&M, beating UCF and taking Tennessee to OT indicates that Florida should have a sense of confidence.

That said, the atmosphere will depend on the game. 90,000+ fans are still going to show up, and given that it’s a 7:45 kickoff, plenty of beverages will have to be consumed ahead of time. If things go well for Florida, the atmosphere will be normal. If it goes south, Napier might not come out of the locker room at halftime. 

Kentucky's defensive line creates a lot of havoc. How will the Florida OL handle that pressure?

Florida’s offensive line got wrecked against Miami and Texas A&M. They have finally solidified their rotation and looked better against Mississippi State and UCF, but those two squads have terrible defensive lines.

Last week against Tennessee, the interior of Florida’s line was completely overrun, so I doubt Florida’s offensive line is going to hold up well.

Give us a quick scouting report for the true freshman quarterback in DJ Lagway. 

When Lagway had the monster game against Samford, the common retort was “Well, that’s Samford.”

There is a hint of truth to that, but what made Gator fans excited was a showcase of vertical passing that hadn’t been seen in the past against similarly inferior competition.

So there is what Lagway can do, but then there is also what Napier will let him do. Napier’s offense isn’t built to be vertical. It relies on hitches, slants, and screens, all things Kentucky has eaten alive the past two seasons.

Are there other major injuries that could impact this game?

Beyond Graham Mertz being out for the season, the status of Montrell Johnson at running back may or may not force true freshman Jadan Baugh to get the bulk of the snaps. Baugh runs hard and is a capable pass blocker.

Based on what you’ve seen from both teams this season, what’s your prediction for the outcome, and what are the biggest factors that will decide the game?

All season, we framed our predictions as what Napier should do and what Napier will do. Especially with Lagway in as the starter, Napier should be running four-receiver sets because Florida’s receivers have genuine speed. Tank Hawkins, for example, who won’t get many snaps, was a 10.37 100-meter dash guy as a junior in high school.

What Napier will do is run the same boring offense—essentially dudes running routes in isolation—that Stoops has eaten alive the past two seasons.

I think Florida has done some stuff the past two weeks on defense that is different compared to the first four games, and it should translate this Saturday. So I’m predicting this game will stay under the Vegas line of 42.5, and Florida has just enough playmakers to win 20-17.

May the odds forever be in their favor.