Kentucky and Florida meet in a rare November matchup that feels stranger than it should. One team is fighting injuries, the other fighting inconsistency, and both are searching for something steady as the SEC calendar winds down. The weather might actually cooperate, mid-to-high 50s at kickoff, but neither fanbase is sure what version of their team will show up.
To get a read from the other sideline, we spoke with Benjamin Henderson, site expert for Hail Florida Hail, who brought a candid view of Florida’s mindset heading into Lexington.
Florida’s view of Mark Stoops: “A program builder in a portal era”
The first topic was Mark Stoops, and Henderson didn’t sugarcoat how Florida fans see Kentucky’s long-tenured coach.
“Stoops looks like a guy who hasn’t adapted to the transfer portal, and his mantra of being a ‘program builder’ just isn’t realistic in modern college football.”
He compared Stoops’ trajectory to Billy Napier’s early success at Louisiana; thriving on under-the-radar players, then struggling as roster construction changed overnight.
Kentucky’s offensive numbers back up the criticism. The Wildcats sit 91st nationally in scoring (22.4 PPG) and 103rd in yards per play (4.9), a visible symptom of an offense that hasn’t evolved quickly enough to keep pace with modern SEC speed. Mark Stoops wants to build his program with under the radar recruits, but those guys don't stay at one program for 4 years anymore.
Florida’s “who’s even playing?” problem
Florida enters this game with one of the longest injury lists in the SEC. Henderson joked that even Gator fans may need a roster card on Saturday.
“The injury report is so extensive, there are going to be guys on the field even Gator fans are going to be asking, ‘Who?’”
Even so, he highlighted two players Kentucky must keep tabs on:
- Offense: RB Jadan Baugh
A future NFL back in Henderson’s eyes. Florida’s run game has struggled to a 116.1 YPG mark (#108 nationally), but Baugh is the exception, a power runner with burst who can erase mistakes. - Defense: LB Myles Graham
“He flies all over the place.” The son of Earnest Graham, he’s one of Florida’s most active defenders and a tone-setter for a group that is quietly solid, ranking 44th in scoring defense.
A November trip to Lexington feels… wrong?
When asked about Florida fans making a late-season trip to Kroger Field, Henderson captured the general mood:
“It’s just weird having this game in November.”
It’s an odd placement on the SEC calendar, made even stranger by the fact that Florida hosts Tennessee later this month. The Gators have not been in Lexington in November since 1990. Forecasts call for a cool but comfortable mid-50s evening with light wind, so no real advantage there.
Which Kentucky players Is Florida zeroing in on?
Here’s where we hit an unexpected answer. Henderson admitted the combination of Florida’s rough season under Napier and Kentucky’s lack of marquee matchups made it hard to keep up with the Wildcats.
“I couldn’t actually tell you a single player on Kentucky’s roster… but there’s some random Wildcat waiting in the wings, ready to wreck Florida’s night.”
Even if the names didn’t come to mind, the concerns are real. Kentucky’s defense has been the steadier unit this season, ranking:
- 22nd in yards per rush allowed (3.5)
- 36th in sack rate
- 33rd in opponent completion percentage
In a matchup featuring two struggling offenses, those numbers matter. Similar to last week vs Auburn, it may be a race to 14.
Florida, meanwhile, throws the ball more than most SEC teams (53% pass rate, #29 nationally), but their quarterbacks have combined for one of the highest interception rates in the country (3.95%, #122). Kentucky’s ability to disrupt passing lanes could be a turning point as DJ Waller is probably and should play in the secondary.
Prediction: Florida 20, Kentucky 10
Henderson’s final call was direct.
“I’m going Florida 20, Kentucky 10.”
He cited Kentucky’s anemic offense and Florida’s slight momentum shift since Billy Gonzales took over on the offensive side. The Gators still lack receivers, and DJ Lagway has regressed since last year, but Henderson believes Florida has “enough juice” to outlast a Kentucky offense that has struggled to finish drives.
He also noted Stoops’ history of static defensive looks:
“Static zones that work against average QBs, but get shredded by anyone who knows what they’re doing.”
The wrinkle this year? Florida’s quarterback play hasn’t consistently hit that bar but he has the ability to.
This matchup is one of the more unpredictable SEC games of the week. Kentucky holds the advantage statistically on defense, time of possession, and penalties. Florida brings the more efficient red-zone offense and the more explosive individual talent.
Both teams are sitting at a crossroads.
If Kentucky finally finds rhythm offensively, even modest rhythm, the Wildcats can flip this game. If not, Florida’s defense may be enough to grind out exactly the type of low-scoring game Henderson predicts.
One thing is for sure, both teams need a win, but only one is going to get it.
Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time he enjoys downtime with his family and Premier League soccer. You can find him on X here. Micah 7:7. #UptheAlbion