As the 2024-25 college basketball regular season draws to a close, all eyes turn to Columbia, Missouri, where the No. 19 Kentucky Wildcats will face off against the No. 15 Missouri Tigers in both teams regular season finale. This SEC showdown carries significant implications for both teams’ postseason seeding, making it a must-watch clash. With the game tipping off at noon ET on ESPN, analysts from Bart Torvik, KenPom, Kentucky Sports Radio (KSR), ESPN, and other expert sources have weighed in with their predictions and insights
Kentucky (currently ranked No. 19) enters the game fresh off a dominant 95-64 victory over LSU, showcasing their high-octane offense under first-year head coach Mark Pope. A win on the road against Missouri could lock up as high as a 5 seed in the SEC Tournament and bolster their case for a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, No. 15 Missouri, led by National Coach of the Year candidate Dennis Gates, has enjoyed a remarkable turnaround from last season’s winless SEC campaign. Sitting fifth in the conference, the Tigers aim to solidify their standing with a marquee home victory to close out the regular season.
Bart Torvik’s advanced analytics project a tight contest, with Missouri edging out Kentucky 88-83. This prediction gives the Tigers a 67% chance of victory, reflecting their home-court advantage at Mizzou Arena. Torvik highlights Missouri’s fifth-ranked offensive efficiency nationally, driven by their ability to draw fouls and convert at the free-throw line (nearly 25% of their points come from free throws). Kentucky’s defense, ranked No. 35 in adjusted efficiency, will need to avoid fouling to keep Missouri’s scoring in check.
KenPom offers a similar outlook, forecasting an 88-83 Missouri win with a 65% probability. Analyst Ken Pomeroy notes the Tigers’ balanced attack and home dominance—Missouri has covered the spread in all but one SEC home game this season. Kentucky’s offense, third in the nation at 88.8 points per game, will test Missouri’s defense, which allows just 66.5 points per contest. KenPom sees this as a classic clash of styles: Kentucky’s perimeter shooting against Missouri’s interior toughness.
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) leans slightly toward Missouri, assigning the Tigers a 51.7% chance of winning. The model predicts a close game, with Missouri favored by a slim 1.4-point margin
The KSR crew is split on the outcome, reflecting the game’s unpredictability. Here’s how their analysts see it unfolding:
Zack Geoghegan-Kentucky 91, Missouri 87
Tyler Thompson- Kentucky 89, Missouri 86
Jack Pilgrim- Kentucky 88, Missouri 83
Drew Franklin- Kentucky 87, Missouri 84
Adam Luckett- Missouri 91, Kentucky 86
NIck Roush- Missouri 95, Kentucky 86
Jacob Polacheck- Missouri 92, Kentucky 88
EvanMiya gives the Cats just a 29.7% chance at the upset, while CBS didn't offer any predictions and instead focused on Duke vs. North Carolina for some reason.
Keys to the game
Kentucky’s Offense vs. Missouri’s Defense: The Wildcats’ third-ranked scoring offense (88.8 PPG) faces a Missouri defense that ranks among the nation’s stingiest (66.5 PPG allowed). Kentucky’s success hinges on Koby Brea hitting from beyond the arc.
Free-Throw Battle: Missouri draws over 20 fouls per game, a stat that could spell trouble for Kentucky if their bigs (e.g., Amari Williams) get into foul trouble. The Cats must defend cleanly to keep Missouri off the line.
Road Woes: Kentucky is 3-6 in true road games this season, while Missouri is 18-1 at home.
FanDuel Sportsbook lists Kentucky as a 5.5-point underdog, with an over/under of 168.5.
The consensus among experts and analytics tilts toward Missouri, with their home advantage and offensive efficiency giving them a slight edge. Bart Torvik, KenPom, and ESPN BPI all favor the Tigers by single digits. However, KSR and select outliers see Kentucky pulling off the upset, only one way to find out is to tune in.