ESPN has a specific way of predicting games with a designed algorithm that adjusts throughout the season as teams play, and it has more data to work with. It hasn't done well with Kentucky so far this year, considering Kentucky is an entirely new coaching staff and team. It predicted a comfortable win for Duke over Kentucky. It predicted some of the other low-level competition to be tighter than they were, and now it's predicting a loss to Clemson. Barely.
As mentioned, the analytics has slowly been adjusting to Kentucky's play, skill, and winning prowess, and what was once a more favorable advantage for Clemson has washed away. It's now only predicting Clemson to win at 50.2%. That's basically a coin flip. The predicted point differential is 0.1. This is not a real score; you can't score percentage points in basketball, but that only goes to show how close it will be. The computer is giving the Tigers only a fraction of an advantage.
Where does that advantage come from? Kentucky is ranked in the top 10 and maybe even in the top 5 tomorrow when the new AP poll comes out. Clemson is unranked but is 7-1 in the year and has played high-level basketball. The difference, according to the simulations, is the home-court advantage for Clemson. Neutral site, the game would be predicted for Kentucky. If it were happening in Rupp Arena, it would be decisive for the Wildcats.
ESPN BPI gives the matchup a strong rating of 92.4.
This is the highest-graded matchup of the day, and there are only a few grades higher for the week—matchups like Duke/Auburn, Alabama/North Carolina, and Baylor/UCONN. The matchup after the Clemson game for Kentucky is Gonzaga, and that game is already being graded as one of the best games of the season for Kentucky at 96.3, but more on that later this week.
For now, we know it'll be Kentucky's first true road test. They haven't played in a hostile environment yet, and it'll be a great game for Kentucky to learn who they are when the fans are against them. The good news is that it's a veteran-heavy team, and they've all been in games like this before.