The new 12-team College Football Playoff was built for years exactly like this one.
You’ve got:
- Ohio State rolling to 12–0 in the regular season, then losing 13–10 to Indiana in a rock-fight Big Ten title game.
- Georgia handling Alabama 28–7 in the SEC Championship to grab another league crown.
- Texas Tech going 11–1, winning its league, and beating BYU twice
- Oregon at 11–1 as a Big Ten member, sitting at No. 5.
- Ole Miss and Texas A&M both 11–1, stacked right behind them.
- Tulane at 10–2, beating North Texas to finish as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.
- James Madison at 12–1, ripping through the Sun Belt after an early loss at Louisville.
- Duke upsetting Virginia in overtime for the ACC title after an uneven season.
Now the committee has to turn that chaos into a 12-team field, while following a key rule that matters a lot here:
"If fewer than five champs are in the top 25, the committee ranks the remaining champs and adds the highest until there are five. A champ outside the top 12 can be placed at the bottom of the seeding."College Football Playoff bylaw
In this setup, that rule forces one very tough call.
Step 1: The easy part, the no-doubt playoff teams
Start with the obvious:
- Indiana (13–0) – Unbeaten Big Ten champion after knocking off No. 1 Ohio State. Automatic bid, and a near-lock for the No. 1 overall seed.
- Georgia (12–1) – SEC champion with a comfortable 28–7 win over Alabama. Automatic bid and top-three seed.
- Texas Tech (11–1) – Big 12 champion, ranked No. 4, and owns two wins over BYU, including 34–7 in the regular season. Automatic bid and a top-four seed.
- Tulane (10–2) – Highest-ranked Group of Five champion after beating North Texas. They’re in automatically as the G5 rep.
That’s four conference champions already locked in.
Now the obvious at-larges:
- Ohio State (12–1) – Perfect regular season, only loss to unbeaten Indiana in the title game.
- Oregon (11–1) – Now a Big Ten team, not the champ, but 11–1 at No. 5. That profile is an automatic at-large.
- Ole Miss (11–1) – One loss in the SEC and ranked No. 6. They’re safely in.
- Texas A&M (11–1) – One loss, ranked No. 7, with a strong résumé that includes a thriller over Notre Dame.
- Oklahoma (10–2) – No. 8 with double-digit wins. They might not be a top seed, but they’re absolutely in the field.
That gives you nine teams that are essentially no-brainers:
- Indiana (champ)
- Georgia (champ)
- Texas Tech (champ)
- Tulane (G5 champ)
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
Three spots left.
Step 2: The fifth conference champion spot, Duke vs. James Madison
Because the format requires five conference champions in the playoff, one more league winner has to be added:
Duke (ACC champ) – 8-5 with a very up-and-down regular season and a strength of schedule of 74.
James Madison (Sun Belt champ) – 12–1 with a strength of schedule of 123, but ranked in the top 25 and fresh off a dominant league run.
Neither profile is perfect, but the rule doesn’t care about perfect. It cares about getting to five champs. In this scenario, James Madison’s 12–1 record and ranking give them the edge over a five-loss Duke team.
So James Madison becomes the fifth automatic conference champion in the field.
That puts us at 10 teams.
Now there are just two at-large bids left, with four heavyweights fighting over them.
Step 3: BYU, Miami, Notre Dame, Alabama, only two can play on
Here’s the bubble:
BYU (11–2) – Finished regular season at No. 11, but both losses came to Texas Tech, including the 34–7 conference title blowout. Strong record, but clearly struggling against a top 5 team to be competitive. Best win is over Utah.
Miami (10–2) – Beat Notre Dame head-to-head, best win is probably South Florida, and carries a strength of schedule of 44. Worst loss is to SMU.
Notre Dame (10–2) – Lost a one-point heartbreaker to Texas A&M and a close game at Miami, but then ripped off a long win streak, including their best win, USC. SOS is 42, slightly better than Miami’s. Worst loss is to Miami.
Alabama (10–3) – Three losses, including the SEC Championship to Georgia, but still ranked No. 9 with the kind of brutal schedule the committee traditionally respects. Best win is clearly Georgia, but multiple ranked teams including number 14 Vandy mean they have a good argument. Worst lose is clearly to a bad Florida State team.
The committee has shown us a few tendencies over the years:
- It will value strength of schedule and volume of quality wins over one head-to-head result if the overall body of work is clearly stronger.
- It will almost never ignore Alabama when the Tide are top-10 with a heavy SEC slate, even with an extra loss.
- Independents like Notre Dame tend to be judged differently on SOS and quality opponents, which is why they schedule like they do and always seem to get in.
So how do those two spots likely shake out?
How the 12-team College Football Playoff field should look after Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and more finish
James Madison is already in as a champ, so this isn’t about them anymore.
BYU has the shiny 11–2 record, but the fact that both losses are to the same Texas Tech team, and both were blowouts, hurts when stacked against Notre Dame and Alabama.
Miami has the head-to-head over Notre Dame, but the Irish have the better SOS, a much cleaner loss profile with A&M and Miami, over Miami's Louisville and SMU.
Alabama, at 10–3 and No. 9, will get the benefit of the doubt from a committee that has consistently trusted the Tide’s résumé in similar situations.
In that room, the last two bids almost certainly go to:
- Notre Dame (10–2)
- Alabama (10–3)
And that means Miami and BYU are out, even with strong seasons and legitimate arguments.
Step 4: The final 12-team College Football Playoff field
Put it all together, and here’s the projected 12-team field based on your rankings and results:
Conference champions (5)
- 1 seed Indiana – Big Ten champion (13–0)
- 2 seed Ohio State- at-large (12–1)
- 3 seed Georgia- SEC Champion (12-1)
- 4 seed Texas Tech – Big 12 champion (11–1)
At-large bids (7)
5. Oregon (11–1)
6. Ole Miss (11–1)
7. Texas A&M (11–1)
8. Oklahoma (10–2)
9. Notre Dame (10–2)
10. Alabama (10–3)
11. Tulane – Highest-ranked Group of Five champion (10–2)
12 James Madison – Added as the fifth champ under the conference champion rule (12–1)
You can argue for Miami. You can argue for BYU. You can argue that Duke’s ACC title should have meant more. But realistically this is the 12 teams that make the most sense. If Miami wanted to be in they should have taken care of either SMU or Louisville neither ended their season ranked.
And for all the noise and heartbreak on the bubble, the payoff is huge:
Indiana and Ohio State at the top. Texas Tech getting rewarded for a breakout year. James Madison crashing the party. Tulane carrying the G5 banner. And a bracket full of matchups that would light up December and January.
1st round matchups
5. Oregon vs. 12. James Madison
6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Tulane (a rematch of Ole Miss's 45-10 win earlier this year)
7. Texas A&M vs. 10. Alabama
8. Oklahoma vs. 9. Notre Dame
This is exactly the kind of chaos the 12-team playoff was meant to capture.
Find out if we got it right at Noon ET on ESPN