Models project modest year for Kentucky after nightmare finish in 2024
2nd year offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan will need to bring some fresh ideas to Kentucky’s playbook this fall if they want to find some success. But the numbers don’t exactly scream “bowl-bound.”
After a 4–8 season that included a jaw dropping 0 games with more than 21 points against a Power 4 opponent, computer models give Kentucky a narrow path to six wins in 2025—with 4–8 emerging as the most likely outcome.
Zach Calzada is expected to start at quarterback, and Kentucky will lean heavily on a deep running back group led by Seth McGowan, Dante Dowdell, Jamarion Wilcox, and Jason Patterson. But the odds reflect the brutal SEC gauntlet.
Game-by-Game Win Probabilities (via ESPN FPI/modified composite AI models)
- Aug 30 vs. Toledo: 75%
- Sep 6 vs. Ole Miss: 4%
- Sep 13 vs. Eastern Michigan: 90%
- Sep 27 at South Carolina: 10%
- Oct 4 at Georgia: >1%
- Oct 18 vs. Texas: 2%
- Oct 25 vs. Tennessee: 23%
- Nov 1 at Auburn: 37%
- Nov 8 vs. Florida: 19%
- Nov 15 vs. Tennessee Tech: 97%
- Nov 22 at Vanderbilt: 42%
- Nov 29 at Louisville: 34%
Best Case Scenario (6–6):
Wins vs. Toledo, EMU, Tennessee Tech, Auburn, Vandy, and Louisville.
Most Likely Outcome (4–8):
Wins vs. Toledo, EMU, Tennessee Tech, Vanderbilt.
Worst Case (2–10):
Only EMU and Tennessee Tech go Kentucky’s way.
The model reflects a lack of proven firepower. Kentucky’s 2024 offense struggled to find rhythm, and while the rushing game is deeper, Calzada will have to be more than a game manager. The defense, which kept the Cats in games last season until falling apart late in the season, will again be asked to do a lot. The model also agrees with the SEC media who also projects Kentucky finishing next to last.
Mark Stoops has made a living exceeding expectations—but 2025 looks like one of his stiffest challenges yet. And after a disaster of a 4-8 season, can he survive another clunker?